Models
BMW INDUSTRIES LIMITEDBSE 542669Industrial Products
₹12per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹12implied FY26 P/E 3.2× · EV/EBITDA 3.7×
Against CMP ₹54.25−77.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31141%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1₹34
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹26₹65
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (250) |
| PV of terminal value | 861 |
| Enterprise value | 611 |
| less net debt | (337) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 274 |
| ÷ 22.51 crore shares | ₹12 |
141% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 14 | 17 | 22 | 28 | 34 |
| 10.50% | 10 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 27 |
| 11.00% | 6 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| 11.50% | 4 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 15 |
| 12.00% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹54.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1 · 12 · 24 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 562 | 598 | 629 | 665 | 705 | 747 | 792 | 840 | 890 |
| growth % | 25.7 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 130 | 146 | 147 | 165 | 175 | 185 | 196 | 208 | 221 |
| margin % | 23.1 | 24.5 | 23.4 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 |
| less depreciation | (40) | (45) | (44) | (52) | (56) | (59) | (63) | (66) | (70) |
| EBIT | 90 | 102 | 103 | 113 | 119 | 126 | 134 | 142 | 150 |
| less tax on EBIT | (29) | (31) | (32) | (34) | (36) | (39) | |||
| NOPAT | 84 | 89 | 94 | 99 | 105 | 112 | |||
| add depreciation | 40 | 45 | 44 | 52 | 56 | 59 | 63 | 66 | 70 |
| less capex | (64) | (124) | (121) | (285) | (303) | (258) | (208) | (150) | (84) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 62 | 144 | 4 | — | (170) | (118) | (59) | 8 | 83 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (161) | (101) | (45) | 6 | 52 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 342, dividends at 11.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 113 | 119 | 126 | 134 | 142 | 150 |
| Interest at 7.8% on debt | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | |
| Profit before tax | 92 | 100 | 107 | 115 | 124 | |
| Profit after tax | 81 | 69 | 74 | 80 | 86 | 92 |
| Dividends | (10) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (11) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | (193) | (340) | (428) | (450) | (398) |
| Working capital | 196 | 207 | 220 | 233 | 247 | 262 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,090 | 1,337 | 1,536 | 1,681 | 1,765 | 1,779 |
| Debt | 342 | 342 | 342 | 342 | 342 | 342 |
| Equity | 804 | 865 | 930 | 1,000 | 1,075 | 1,156 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 113 | 121 | 129 | 138 | 147 | |
| Investing (capex) | (303) | (258) | (208) | (150) | (84) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |
| Net change in cash | (198) | (146) | (88) | (22) | 52 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (190) | (138) | (78) | (12) | 63 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 24.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹12 | (77.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.