₹57per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹57implied FY26 P/E 2.5× · EV/EBITDA 2.3×
Against CMP ₹282.00−79.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3193%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹39₹94
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹215₹503
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 48 |
| PV of terminal value | 696 |
| Enterprise value | 745 |
| less net debt | (108) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 637 |
| ÷ 11.17 crore shares | ₹57 |
93% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 59 | 66 | 73 | 82 | 94 |
| 10.50% | 53 | 58 | 64 | 72 | 81 |
| 11.00% | 48 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 70 |
| 11.50% | 43 | 47 | 51 | 56 | 62 |
| 12.00% | 39 | 42 | 46 | 50 | 55 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹282.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (174) · 56 · 207 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.83 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 801 | 1,571 | 2,843 | 3,696 | 4,804 | 6,246 | 8,119 | 10,555 |
| growth % | — | 96.2 | 80.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | — | — | 327 | 425 | 552 | 718 | 934 | 1,214 |
| margin % | — | — | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| less depreciation | — | — | (10) | (11) | (14) | (19) | (24) | (32) |
| EBIT | — | — | 317 | 414 | 538 | 700 | 909 | 1,182 |
| less tax on EBIT | (82) | (107) | (139) | (180) | (235) | (305) | ||
| NOPAT | 235 | 307 | 399 | 519 | 675 | 877 | ||
| add depreciation | — | — | 10 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 24 | 32 |
| less capex | — | (35) | (40) | (52) | (55) | (55) | (50) | (38) |
| less working-capital build | — | (281) | (366) | (476) | (618) | (804) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (202) | — | (15) | (7) | 7 | 30 | 67 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (14) | (6) | 6 | 21 | 42 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 275, dividends at 0.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 317 | 414 | 538 | 700 | 909 | 1,182 |
| Interest at 14.8% on debt | (41) | (41) | (41) | (41) | (41) | |
| Profit before tax | 373 | 497 | 659 | 869 | 1,141 | |
| Profit after tax | 203 | 277 | 369 | 489 | 645 | 847 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 167 | 120 | 81 | 56 | 53 | 85 |
| Working capital | 938 | 1,219 | 1,585 | 2,061 | 2,679 | 3,483 |
| Net block and other assets | 937 | 978 | 1,018 | 1,054 | 1,080 | 1,087 |
| Debt | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 |
| Equity | 733 | 1,008 | 1,375 | 1,862 | 2,503 | 3,346 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 7 | 18 | 32 | 51 | 75 | |
| Investing (capex) | (52) | (55) | (55) | (50) | (38) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | (47) | (39) | (25) | (3) | 33 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (45) | (37) | (23) | 0 | 37 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 11.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹57 | (79.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.