₹478per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹478implied FY26 P/E 18.4× · EV/EBITDA 14.7×
Against CMP ₹317.50+50.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies17.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31117%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹308₹822
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹215₹420
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (225) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,566 |
| Enterprise value | 1,342 |
| less net debt | (68) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,274 |
| ÷ 2.66 crore shares | ₹478 |
117% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 500 | 558 | 628 | 714 | 822 |
| 10.50% | 440 | 489 | 546 | 615 | 700 |
| 11.00% | 389 | 430 | 478 | 535 | 602 |
| 11.50% | 346 | 380 | 421 | 468 | 523 |
| 12.00% | 308 | 338 | 372 | 411 | 458 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹317.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 304 · 468 · 692 |
| Draws below the CMP | 12% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 290 | 389 | 505 | 657 | 854 | 1,110 | 1,443 |
| growth % | — | 33.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 62 | 91 | 119 | 154 | 201 | 261 | 339 |
| margin % | 21.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (18) | (23) | (30) | (39) | (51) | (66) |
| EBIT | 49 | 74 | 95 | 124 | 161 | 210 | 273 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (17) | (22) | (28) | (37) | (48) | |
| NOPAT | 61 | 79 | 102 | 133 | 173 | 225 | |
| add depreciation | 13 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 39 | 51 | 66 |
| less capex | (10) | (179) | (233) | (236) | (220) | (174) | (80) |
| less working-capital build | — | (21) | (28) | (36) | (47) | (61) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 13 | — | (152) | (131) | (84) | 3 | 151 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (144) | (112) | (65) | 2 | 94 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 70, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 74 | 95 | 124 | 161 | 210 | 273 |
| Interest at 5.4% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 92 | 120 | 158 | 206 | 269 | |
| Profit after tax | 65 | 76 | 99 | 130 | 170 | 222 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (154) | (288) | (375) | (375) | (227) |
| Working capital | 71 | 92 | 119 | 155 | 202 | 263 |
| Net block and other assets | 294 | 504 | 710 | 891 | 1,013 | 1,027 |
| Debt | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Equity | 282 | 357 | 456 | 586 | 756 | 978 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 78 | 102 | 133 | 174 | 227 | |
| Investing (capex) | (233) | (236) | (220) | (174) | (80) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (155) | (134) | (87) | 0 | 148 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (155) | (134) | (87) | 0 | 148 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 23.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹478 | 50.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.