₹-1per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(1)implied FY26 P/E (0.1)× · EV/EBITDA 0.8×
Against CMP ₹256.29−100.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31125%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(4)₹7
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹214₹398
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (31) |
| PV of terminal value | 158 |
| Enterprise value | 127 |
| less net debt | (134) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (7) |
| ÷ 11.96 crore shares | ₹(1) |
125% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (0) | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 10.50% | (1) | (0) | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11.00% | (3) | (2) | (1) | 1 | 2 |
| 11.50% | (4) | (3) | (2) | (1) | 0 |
| 12.00% | (4) | (4) | (3) | (2) | (1) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹256.29; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (25) · (1) · 21 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,027 | 942 | 1,108 | 1,196 | 1,292 | 1,395 | 1,507 | 1,627 | 1,757 |
| growth % | 22.3 | (8.3) | 17.6 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 136 | 133 | 170 | 165 | 178 | 192 | 208 | 225 | 242 |
| margin % | 13.2 | 14.1 | 15.4 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| less depreciation | (39) | (54) | (81) | (87) | (94) | (102) | (110) | (119) | (128) |
| EBIT | 96 | 79 | 89 | 78 | 84 | 91 | 98 | 106 | 114 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (22) | (24) | (25) | (27) | (30) | |||
| NOPAT | 58 | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 | 85 | |||
| add depreciation | 39 | 54 | 81 | 87 | 94 | 102 | 110 | 119 | 128 |
| less capex | (268) | (175) | (98) | (138) | (149) | (151) | (153) | (154) | (154) |
| less working-capital build | — | (32) | (35) | (37) | (40) | (44) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (204) | (127) | (117) | — | (24) | (17) | (8) | 3 | 15 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (23) | (14) | (6) | 2 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 136, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 78 | 84 | 91 | 98 | 106 | 114 |
| Interest at 6.1% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 76 | 82 | 90 | 97 | 106 | |
| Profit after tax | 75 | 56 | 61 | 66 | 72 | 78 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | (27) | (50) | (64) | (67) | (58) |
| Working capital | 400 | 432 | 467 | 504 | 544 | 588 |
| Net block and other assets | 879 | 933 | 982 | 1,025 | 1,060 | 1,085 |
| Debt | 136 | 136 | 136 | 136 | 136 | 136 |
| Equity | 887 | 943 | 1,004 | 1,070 | 1,142 | 1,221 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 118 | 128 | 139 | 151 | 163 | |
| Investing (capex) | (149) | (151) | (153) | (154) | (154) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (30) | (23) | (14) | (3) | 9 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (30) | (23) | (14) | (3) | 9 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 13.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(1) | (100.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.