Models
BOSCH LIMITEDBOSCHLTDAuto Components
₹15,014per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹15,014implied FY26 P/E 18.7× · EV/EBITDA 13.7×
Against CMP ₹48,385.00−69.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹11,655₹21,714
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹28,610₹50,000
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 10,481 |
| PV of terminal value | 33,415 |
| Enterprise value | 43,896 |
| less net debt | 396 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 44,292 |
| ÷ 2.95 crore shares | ₹15,014 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 15,506 | 16,635 | 17,989 | 19,644 | 21,714 |
| 10.50% | 14,319 | 15,257 | 16,366 | 17,696 | 19,321 |
| 11.00% | 13,303 | 14,093 | 15,014 | 16,103 | 17,409 |
| 11.50% | 12,424 | 13,096 | 13,871 | 14,776 | 15,845 |
| 12.00% | 11,655 | 12,233 | 12,893 | 13,655 | 14,543 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹48,385.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 12,287 · 14,931 · 18,141 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14,929 | 16,727 | 18,087 | 20,035 | 22,239 | 24,685 | 27,400 | 30,414 | 33,760 |
| growth % | 26.7 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,807 | 2,939 | 2,311 | 3,206 | 3,558 | 3,950 | 4,384 | 4,866 | 5,402 |
| margin % | 12.1 | 17.6 | 12.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| less depreciation | (386) | (430) | (376) | (392) | (445) | (494) | (548) | (608) | (675) |
| EBIT | 1,421 | 2,509 | 1,936 | 2,814 | 3,113 | 3,456 | 3,836 | 4,258 | 4,726 |
| less tax on EBIT | (673) | (744) | (826) | (917) | (1,018) | (1,130) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,142 | 2,369 | 2,630 | 2,919 | 3,240 | 3,597 | |||
| add depreciation | 386 | 430 | 376 | 392 | 445 | 494 | 548 | 608 | 675 |
| less capex | (641) | (330) | (315) | (317) | (356) | (444) | (548) | (669) | (810) |
| less working-capital build | — | (161) | (179) | (198) | (220) | (244) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 573 | 923 | 2,058 | — | 2,297 | 2,501 | 2,721 | 2,959 | 3,217 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,181 | 2,138 | 2,096 | 2,054 | 2,012 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 54.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,814 | 3,113 | 3,456 | 3,836 | 4,258 | 4,726 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 3,113 | 3,456 | 3,836 | 4,258 | 4,726 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,773 | 2,369 | 2,630 | 2,919 | 3,240 | 3,597 |
| Dividends | (1,509) | (1,289) | (1,431) | (1,588) | (1,763) | (1,957) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 396 | 1,405 | 2,475 | 3,608 | 4,805 | 6,065 |
| Working capital | 1,460 | 1,621 | 1,800 | 1,998 | 2,218 | 2,462 |
| Net block and other assets | 19,823 | 19,734 | 19,685 | 19,685 | 19,746 | 19,881 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 14,845 | 15,926 | 17,125 | 18,456 | 19,934 | 21,574 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,653 | 2,945 | 3,269 | 3,629 | 4,028 | |
| Investing (capex) | (356) | (444) | (548) | (669) | (810) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,289) | (1,431) | (1,588) | (1,763) | (1,957) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,008 | 1,070 | 1,133 | 1,197 | 1,261 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,297 | 2,501 | 2,721 | 2,959 | 3,217 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 16% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹15,014 | (69.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.