Models
BOSCH HOME COMFRT IND LTDBOSCH-HCILConsumer Durables
₹2,726per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,726implied FY26 P/E 378.6× · EV/EBITDA 150.9×
Against CMP ₹1,712.00+59.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(13.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,138₹3,896
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,021₹1,891
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,042 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,374 |
| Enterprise value | 7,415 |
| less net debt | (4) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,411 |
| ÷ 2.72 crore shares | ₹2,726 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,813 | 3,010 | 3,247 | 3,535 | 3,896 |
| 10.50% | 2,605 | 2,769 | 2,962 | 3,195 | 3,478 |
| 11.00% | 2,427 | 2,565 | 2,726 | 2,916 | 3,144 |
| 11.50% | 2,273 | 2,390 | 2,526 | 2,683 | 2,870 |
| 12.00% | 2,138 | 2,239 | 2,354 | 2,487 | 2,642 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,712.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,047 · 2,702 · 4,456 |
| Draws below the CMP | 23% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | −0.98 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.17 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,384 | 1,919 | 2,756 | 2,699 | 2,645 | 2,592 | 2,540 | 2,489 | 2,439 |
| growth % | 10.4 | (19.5) | 43.7 | (2.1) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) |
| EBITDA | (34) | (28) | 132 | 49 | 48 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 44 |
| margin % | (1.4) | (1.5) | 4.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| less depreciation | (75) | (64) | (70) | (58) | (56) | (54) | (53) | (52) | (51) |
| EBIT | (110) | (92) | 62 | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) |
| less tax on EBIT | 610 | 575 | 564 | 552 | 541 | 531 | |||
| NOPAT | 602 | 567 | 556 | 545 | 534 | 523 | |||
| add depreciation | 75 | 64 | 70 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 51 |
| less capex | (48) | (37) | (19) | (99) | (98) | (88) | (79) | (70) | (61) |
| less working-capital build | — | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (79) | 217 | 65 | — | 530 | 527 | 524 | 521 | 517 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 503 | 450 | 404 | 361 | 324 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 60, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) |
| Interest at 18.3% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | (19) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (18) | |
| Profit after tax | (3) | 1,353 | 1,341 | 1,330 | 1,319 | 1,309 |
| Dividends | (138) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 56 | 1,371 | 2,683 | 3,992 | 5,298 | 6,601 |
| Working capital | 241 | 236 | 232 | 227 | 222 | 218 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,619 | 1,661 | 1,695 | 1,720 | 1,738 | 1,749 |
| Debt | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Equity | 501 | 1,853 | 3,194 | 4,525 | 5,844 | 7,152 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,413 | 1,400 | 1,388 | 1,376 | 1,364 | |
| Investing (capex) | (98) | (88) | (79) | (70) | (61) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1,315 | 1,312 | 1,309 | 1,306 | 1,303 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,315 | 1,312 | 1,309 | 1,306 | 1,303 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2% | 1.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,726 | 59.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.