Models
BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTDBRITANNIAFood Products
₹1,858per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,858implied FY26 P/E 17.2× · EV/EBITDA 12.9×
Against CMP ₹4,962.00−62.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies31.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,436₹2,698
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,997₹6,320
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 11,694 |
| PV of terminal value | 34,197 |
| Enterprise value | 45,891 |
| less net debt | (1,138) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 44,753 |
| ÷ 24.09 crore shares | ₹1,858 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,920 | 2,061 | 2,231 | 2,439 | 2,698 |
| 10.50% | 1,771 | 1,888 | 2,027 | 2,194 | 2,398 |
| 11.00% | 1,643 | 1,742 | 1,858 | 1,994 | 2,158 |
| 11.50% | 1,533 | 1,617 | 1,714 | 1,828 | 1,962 |
| 12.00% | 1,436 | 1,509 | 1,591 | 1,687 | 1,798 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,962.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,546 · 1,849 · 2,221 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,301 | 16,769 | 17,943 | 19,152 | 20,396 | 21,722 | 23,134 | 24,638 | 26,239 |
| growth % | 15.3 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| EBITDA | 3,207 | 3,167 | 3,162 | 3,544 | 3,773 | 4,019 | 4,280 | 4,558 | 4,854 |
| margin % | 19.7 | 18.9 | 17.6 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| less depreciation | (226) | (300) | (313) | (337) | (367) | (391) | (416) | (443) | (472) |
| EBIT | 2,981 | 2,866 | 2,849 | 3,208 | 3,406 | 3,628 | 3,863 | 4,115 | 4,382 |
| less tax on EBIT | (728) | (773) | (823) | (877) | (934) | (995) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,479 | 2,633 | 2,804 | 2,986 | 3,181 | 3,387 | |||
| add depreciation | 226 | 300 | 313 | 337 | 367 | 391 | 416 | 443 | 472 |
| less capex | (711) | (562) | (375) | (206) | (224) | (297) | (377) | (467) | (567) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,815 | 2,011 | 2,106 | — | 2,776 | 2,899 | 3,026 | 3,157 | 3,293 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,635 | 2,479 | 2,331 | 2,191 | 2,059 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,358, dividends at 71.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,208 | 3,406 | 3,628 | 3,863 | 4,115 | 4,382 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (118) | (118) | (118) | (118) | (118) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,288 | 3,509 | 3,745 | 3,996 | 4,264 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,533 | 2,542 | 2,713 | 2,895 | 3,089 | 3,296 |
| Dividends | (1,804) | (1,810) | (1,932) | (2,061) | (2,200) | (2,347) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 220 | 1,095 | 1,971 | 2,844 | 3,710 | 4,565 |
| Working capital | (79) | (79) | (79) | (79) | (79) | (79) |
| Net block and other assets | 9,591 | 9,448 | 9,353 | 9,314 | 9,337 | 9,432 |
| Debt | 1,358 | 1,358 | 1,358 | 1,358 | 1,358 | 1,358 |
| Equity | 5,136 | 5,868 | 6,649 | 7,483 | 8,373 | 9,322 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,909 | 3,104 | 3,312 | 3,533 | 3,768 | |
| Investing (capex) | (224) | (297) | (377) | (467) | (567) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,810) | (1,932) | (2,061) | (2,200) | (2,347) | |
| Net change in cash | 875 | 876 | 873 | 866 | 855 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,684 | 2,807 | 2,934 | 3,066 | 3,201 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6.5% | 18.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,858 | (62.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.