Models
BSE LIMITEDBSECapital Markets
₹2,381per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,381implied FY26 P/E 34.6× · EV/EBITDA 31.0×
Against CMP ₹3,384.00−29.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies40.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,811₹3,523
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,022₹4,447
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 16,559 |
| PV of terminal value | 78,903 |
| Enterprise value | 95,462 |
| less net debt | 1,672 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 97,134 |
| ÷ 40.79 crore shares | ₹2,381 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,462 | 2,655 | 2,886 | 3,169 | 3,523 |
| 10.50% | 2,261 | 2,421 | 2,611 | 2,838 | 3,115 |
| 11.00% | 2,089 | 2,224 | 2,381 | 2,567 | 2,790 |
| 11.50% | 1,940 | 2,055 | 2,188 | 2,342 | 2,525 |
| 12.00% | 1,811 | 1,909 | 2,022 | 2,152 | 2,304 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,384.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,737 · 2,365 · 3,193 |
| Draws below the CMP | 94% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 816 | 1,390 | 2,957 | 4,834 | 6,284 | 8,169 | 10,620 | 13,806 | 17,948 |
| growth % | 9.7 | 70.4 | 112.8 | 63.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 197 | 806 | 1,500 | 3,079 | 4,003 | 5,204 | 6,765 | 8,795 | 11,433 |
| margin % | 24.2 | 58.0 | 50.7 | 63.7 | 63.7 | 63.7 | 63.7 | 63.7 | 63.7 |
| less depreciation | (60) | (95) | (113) | (159) | (207) | (270) | (350) | (456) | (592) |
| EBIT | 137 | 711 | 1,387 | 2,920 | 3,796 | 4,934 | 6,415 | 8,339 | 10,841 |
| less tax on EBIT | (744) | (968) | (1,258) | (1,636) | (2,126) | (2,764) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,175 | 2,828 | 3,676 | 4,779 | 6,213 | 8,076 | |||
| add depreciation | 60 | 95 | 113 | 159 | 207 | 270 | 350 | 456 | 592 |
| less capex | (143) | (131) | (153) | (515) | (672) | (736) | (778) | (779) | (711) |
| less working-capital build | — | (126) | (164) | (213) | (277) | (360) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (281) | 2,711 | 257 | — | 2,237 | 3,045 | 4,138 | 5,612 | 7,597 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,123 | 2,604 | 3,187 | 3,895 | 4,750 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 12.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,920 | 3,796 | 4,934 | 6,415 | 8,339 | 10,841 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 3,796 | 4,934 | 6,415 | 8,339 | 10,841 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,497 | 2,828 | 3,676 | 4,779 | 6,213 | 8,076 |
| Dividends | (316) | (356) | (463) | (602) | (783) | (1,018) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,672 | 3,552 | 6,134 | 9,669 | 14,498 | 21,078 |
| Working capital | 422 | 549 | 713 | 926 | 1,203 | 1,563 |
| Net block and other assets | 11,352 | 11,817 | 12,284 | 12,712 | 13,036 | 13,154 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 6,796 | 9,267 | 12,480 | 16,657 | 22,086 | 29,145 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,909 | 3,782 | 4,916 | 6,391 | 8,308 | |
| Investing (capex) | (672) | (736) | (778) | (779) | (711) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (356) | (463) | (602) | (783) | (1,018) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,880 | 2,582 | 3,536 | 4,829 | 6,580 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,237 | 3,045 | 4,138 | 5,612 | 7,597 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 63.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,381 | (29.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.