Models
CANARA ROBECO AMC LIMITEDCRAMCCapital Markets
₹180per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹180implied FY26 P/E 12.9× · EV/EBITDA 14.1×
Against CMP ₹239.40−24.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies15.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹140₹261
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹214₹353
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 873 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,723 |
| Enterprise value | 3,596 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,598 |
| ÷ 19.94 crore shares | ₹180 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 186 | 200 | 216 | 236 | 261 |
| 10.50% | 172 | 183 | 197 | 213 | 232 |
| 11.00% | 160 | 169 | 180 | 194 | 209 |
| 11.50% | 149 | 157 | 167 | 178 | 190 |
| 12.00% | 140 | 147 | 155 | 164 | 175 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹239.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 151 · 180 · 215 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 425 | 459 | 496 | 535 | 578 | 624 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 254 | 274 | 296 | 320 | 346 | 373 |
| margin % | 59.8 | 59.8 | 59.8 | 59.8 | 59.8 | 59.8 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) |
| EBIT | 247 | 267 | 288 | 311 | 336 | 363 |
| less tax on EBIT | (64) | (69) | (74) | (80) | (87) | (94) |
| NOPAT | 183 | 198 | 214 | 231 | 249 | 269 |
| add depreciation | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| less capex | (6) | (6) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (13) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 196 | 211 | 227 | 244 | 262 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 186 | 180 | 174 | 169 | 164 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 29.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 247 | 267 | 288 | 311 | 336 | 363 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 267 | 288 | 311 | 336 | 363 | |
| Profit after tax | 204 | 198 | 214 | 231 | 249 | 269 |
| Dividends | (60) | (58) | (63) | (68) | (73) | (79) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 140 | 287 | 446 | 616 | 799 |
| Working capital | 45 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 | 66 |
| Net block and other assets | 772 | 770 | 770 | 770 | 771 | 773 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 746 | 886 | 1,036 | 1,199 | 1,375 | 1,565 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 202 | 218 | 236 | 255 | 275 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (13) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (58) | (63) | (68) | (73) | (79) | |
| Net change in cash | 137 | 148 | 159 | 170 | 183 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 196 | 211 | 227 | 244 | 262 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 59.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹180 | (24.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.