Models
CANTABIL RETAIL LTDCANTABILTextiles & Apparels
₹267per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹267implied FY26 P/E 22.9× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹241.50+10.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies11.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹210₹381
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹209₹322
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 597 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,613 |
| Enterprise value | 2,210 |
| less net debt | 25 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,235 |
| ÷ 8.36 crore shares | ₹267 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 276 | 295 | 318 | 346 | 381 |
| 10.50% | 255 | 271 | 290 | 313 | 341 |
| 11.00% | 238 | 252 | 267 | 286 | 308 |
| 11.50% | 223 | 235 | 248 | 263 | 281 |
| 12.00% | 210 | 220 | 231 | 244 | 259 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹241.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 188 · 263 · 350 |
| Draws below the CMP | 36% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 552 | 616 | 721 | 853 | 1,006 | 1,187 | 1,401 | 1,653 | 1,950 |
| growth % | 43.9 | 11.7 | 17.0 | 18.2 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| EBITDA | 164 | 164 | 205 | 264 | 312 | 368 | 434 | 512 | 605 |
| margin % | 29.7 | 26.6 | 28.4 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 |
| less depreciation | (53) | (62) | (80) | (100) | (118) | (139) | (164) | (193) | (228) |
| EBIT | 111 | 102 | 125 | 165 | 194 | 229 | 270 | 319 | 376 |
| less tax on EBIT | (40) | (47) | (55) | (65) | (77) | (91) | |||
| NOPAT | 125 | 147 | 174 | 205 | 242 | 286 | |||
| add depreciation | 53 | 62 | 80 | 100 | 118 | 139 | 164 | 193 | 228 |
| less capex | (34) | (56) | (49) | (64) | (75) | (108) | (151) | (205) | (274) |
| less working-capital build | — | (44) | (52) | (61) | (72) | (85) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 41 | 71 | 102 | — | 146 | 153 | 157 | 159 | 155 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 138 | 131 | 121 | 110 | 97 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 10.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 165 | 194 | 229 | 270 | 319 | 376 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 194 | 229 | 270 | 319 | 376 | |
| Profit after tax | 96 | 147 | 174 | 205 | 242 | 286 |
| Dividends | (10) | (16) | (19) | (22) | (26) | (31) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 25 | 155 | 289 | 424 | 556 | 680 |
| Working capital | 243 | 287 | 338 | 399 | 471 | 556 |
| Net block and other assets | 882 | 840 | 809 | 796 | 808 | 853 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 478 | 609 | 764 | 947 | 1,163 | 1,417 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 221 | 261 | 308 | 364 | 429 | |
| Investing (capex) | (75) | (108) | (151) | (205) | (274) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (16) | (19) | (22) | (26) | (31) | |
| Net change in cash | 130 | 134 | 135 | 132 | 124 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 146 | 153 | 157 | 159 | 155 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18% | 31% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹267 | 10.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.