Models
CAPACITE INFRAPROJECT LTDCAPACITEConstruction
₹463per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹463implied FY26 P/E 21.1× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹191.90+141.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(13.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹343₹702
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹180₹334
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 872 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,424 |
| Enterprise value | 4,296 |
| less net debt | (381) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,915 |
| ÷ 8.46 crore shares | ₹463 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 480 | 520 | 569 | 628 | 702 |
| 10.50% | 438 | 471 | 511 | 558 | 616 |
| 11.00% | 402 | 430 | 463 | 502 | 548 |
| 11.50% | 370 | 394 | 422 | 454 | 493 |
| 12.00% | 343 | 364 | 387 | 414 | 446 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹191.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 355 · 459 · 583 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,799 | 1,932 | 2,350 | 2,623 | 2,924 | 3,261 | 3,636 | 4,054 | 4,520 |
| growth % | 34.7 | 7.4 | 21.6 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 351 | 331 | 379 | 427 | 477 | 531 | 593 | 661 | 737 |
| margin % | 19.5 | 17.2 | 16.1 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
| less depreciation | (136) | (101) | (95) | (99) | (111) | (124) | (138) | (154) | (172) |
| EBIT | 215 | 230 | 284 | 328 | 366 | 408 | 454 | 507 | 565 |
| less tax on EBIT | (85) | (95) | (106) | (118) | (132) | (147) | |||
| NOPAT | 243 | 271 | 302 | 336 | 375 | 418 | |||
| add depreciation | 136 | 101 | 95 | 99 | 111 | 124 | 138 | 154 | 172 |
| less capex | (92) | (85) | (103) | (175) | (196) | (201) | (205) | (207) | (206) |
| less working-capital build | — | (35) | (39) | (43) | (48) | (54) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 9 | (124) | (51) | — | 151 | 185 | 226 | 274 | 330 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 143 | 159 | 174 | 190 | 206 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 472, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 328 | 366 | 408 | 454 | 507 | 565 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | |
| Profit before tax | 328 | 370 | 417 | 469 | 527 | |
| Profit after tax | 192 | 243 | 274 | 308 | 347 | 390 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 91 | 214 | 372 | 570 | 816 | 1,118 |
| Working capital | 304 | 339 | 378 | 421 | 470 | 524 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,527 | 3,612 | 3,689 | 3,756 | 3,808 | 3,842 |
| Debt | 472 | 472 | 472 | 472 | 472 | 472 |
| Equity | 1,912 | 2,154 | 2,428 | 2,737 | 3,084 | 3,474 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 319 | 359 | 403 | 453 | 508 | |
| Investing (capex) | (196) | (201) | (205) | (207) | (206) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 123 | 158 | 198 | 246 | 302 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 123 | 158 | 198 | 246 | 302 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 16.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹463 | 141.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.