Models
CAPRIHANS INDIA LTD.BSE 509486Industrial Products
₹-369per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(369)implied FY26 P/E (8.8)× · EV/EBITDA 0.9×
Against CMP ₹118.80−410.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31-134%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(387)₹(361)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹50₹143
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 85 |
| PV of terminal value | (49) |
| Enterprise value | 36 |
| less net debt | (624) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (588) |
| ÷ 1.59 crore shares | ₹(369) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (370) | (373) | (377) | (381) | (387) |
| 10.50% | (367) | (370) | (373) | (376) | (381) |
| 11.00% | (365) | (367) | (369) | (372) | (376) |
| 11.50% | (363) | (365) | (367) | (369) | (372) |
| 12.00% | (361) | (363) | (364) | (366) | (369) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹118.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (392) · (369) · (348) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.98 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.18 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 752 | 715 | 679 | 645 | 613 | 582 | 553 |
| growth % | — | (4.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 30 | 40 | 38 | 36 | 34 | 33 | 31 |
| margin % | 4.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| less depreciation | (43) | (45) | (43) | (41) | (39) | (37) | (35) |
| EBIT | (13) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| less tax on EBIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| NOPAT | (4) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| add depreciation | 43 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 | 35 |
| less capex | (9) | 0 | 0 | (12) | (23) | (33) | (42) |
| less working-capital build | — | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 82 | — | 46 | 31 | 18 | 6 | (5) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 43 | 27 | 14 | 4 | (3) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 625, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| Interest at 11.4% on debt | (71) | (71) | (71) | (71) | (71) | |
| Profit before tax | (76) | (76) | (76) | (75) | (75) | |
| Profit after tax | (47) | (57) | (57) | (57) | (56) | (56) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (7) | (29) | (64) | (112) | (170) |
| Working capital | 128 | 121 | 115 | 109 | 104 | 99 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,057 | 1,014 | 985 | 970 | 966 | 973 |
| Debt | 625 | 625 | 625 | 625 | 625 | 625 |
| Equity | 404 | 347 | 290 | 234 | 178 | 121 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (8) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (12) | (23) | (33) | (42) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (8) | (22) | (35) | (47) | (58) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (8) | (22) | (35) | (47) | (58) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 5.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(369) | (410.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.