Models
CARE RATINGS LIMITEDCARERATINGCapital Markets
₹1,293per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,293implied FY26 P/E 21.9× · EV/EBITDA 19.5×
Against CMP ₹1,660.00−22.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies24.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹997₹1,884
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,393₹1,838
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 836 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,008 |
| Enterprise value | 3,844 |
| less net debt | 43 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,887 |
| ÷ 3.01 crore shares | ₹1,293 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,336 | 1,436 | 1,555 | 1,702 | 1,884 |
| 10.50% | 1,231 | 1,314 | 1,412 | 1,530 | 1,673 |
| 11.00% | 1,142 | 1,212 | 1,293 | 1,389 | 1,505 |
| 11.50% | 1,064 | 1,124 | 1,192 | 1,272 | 1,367 |
| 12.00% | 997 | 1,048 | 1,106 | 1,173 | 1,252 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,660.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,023 · 1,286 · 1,613 |
| Draws below the CMP | 93% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 279 | 332 | 402 | 473 | 556 | 653 | 767 | 902 | 1,060 |
| growth % | 12.7 | 18.9 | 21.3 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 |
| EBITDA | 99 | 112 | 155 | 197 | 232 | 272 | 320 | 376 | 442 |
| margin % | 35.6 | 33.8 | 38.6 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (20) | (23) | (27) | (32) |
| EBIT | 89 | 102 | 144 | 183 | 215 | 253 | 297 | 349 | 410 |
| less tax on EBIT | (48) | (56) | (66) | (78) | (91) | (107) | |||
| NOPAT | 135 | 159 | 187 | 219 | 258 | 303 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 27 | 32 |
| less capex | (12) | (9) | (15) | (8) | (10) | (15) | (21) | (28) | (38) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 71 | 82 | 108 | — | 162 | 187 | 217 | 251 | 290 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 154 | 160 | 167 | 174 | 181 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 34.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 183 | 215 | 253 | 297 | 349 | 410 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 215 | 253 | 297 | 349 | 410 | |
| Profit after tax | 171 | 159 | 187 | 219 | 258 | 303 |
| Dividends | (58) | (54) | (64) | (75) | (88) | (103) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 43 | 150 | 274 | 416 | 579 | 765 |
| Working capital | 20 | 24 | 28 | 32 | 38 | 45 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,042 | 1,035 | 1,030 | 1,028 | 1,030 | 1,036 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 943 | 1,048 | 1,171 | 1,315 | 1,485 | 1,684 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 172 | 202 | 237 | 279 | 328 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (15) | (21) | (28) | (38) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (54) | (64) | (75) | (88) | (103) | |
| Net change in cash | 108 | 124 | 142 | 163 | 186 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 162 | 187 | 217 | 251 | 290 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17.5% | 41.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,293 | (22.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.