Models
CARRARO INDIA LIMITEDCARRAROAuto Components
₹425per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹425implied FY26 P/E 18.2× · EV/EBITDA 11.8×
Against CMP ₹540.00−21.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹325₹626
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹416₹668
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 540 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,929 |
| Enterprise value | 2,470 |
| less net debt | (51) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,419 |
| ÷ 5.69 crore shares | ₹425 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 440 | 474 | 514 | 564 | 626 |
| 10.50% | 405 | 433 | 466 | 506 | 554 |
| 11.00% | 374 | 398 | 425 | 458 | 497 |
| 11.50% | 348 | 368 | 391 | 418 | 450 |
| 12.00% | 325 | 342 | 362 | 385 | 411 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹540.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 301 · 417 · 554 |
| Draws below the CMP | 88% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,808 | 2,255 | 2,819 | 3,524 | 4,405 | 5,507 | 6,883 |
| growth % | — | 24.8 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| EBITDA | 171 | 209 | 262 | 328 | 410 | 512 | 640 |
| margin % | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| less depreciation | (45) | (46) | (56) | (70) | (88) | (110) | (138) |
| EBIT | 125 | 164 | 206 | 257 | 322 | 402 | 502 |
| less tax on EBIT | (40) | (50) | (63) | (78) | (98) | (123) | |
| NOPAT | 124 | 156 | 194 | 243 | 304 | 380 | |
| add depreciation | 45 | 46 | 56 | 70 | 88 | 110 | 138 |
| less capex | (52) | (32) | (39) | (58) | (84) | (118) | (165) |
| less working-capital build | — | (68) | (85) | (107) | (133) | (167) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 24 | — | 104 | 122 | 141 | 162 | 186 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 99 | 104 | 109 | 113 | 116 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 141, dividends at 19.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 164 | 206 | 257 | 322 | 402 | 502 |
| Interest at 12.3% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 188 | 240 | 304 | 385 | 485 | |
| Profit after tax | 131 | 142 | 181 | 230 | 291 | 367 |
| Dividends | (26) | (28) | (36) | (46) | (58) | (73) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 90 | 153 | 226 | 308 | 400 | 500 |
| Working capital | 273 | 341 | 426 | 533 | 666 | 832 |
| Net block and other assets | 906 | 889 | 877 | 872 | 881 | 908 |
| Debt | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 |
| Equity | 565 | 679 | 824 | 1,009 | 1,242 | 1,536 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 131 | 167 | 211 | 268 | 338 | |
| Investing (capex) | (39) | (58) | (84) | (118) | (165) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (28) | (36) | (46) | (58) | (73) | |
| Net change in cash | 63 | 72 | 82 | 92 | 100 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 91 | 108 | 128 | 149 | 173 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25% | 9.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹425 | (21.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.