Models
CARTRADE TECH LIMITEDCARTRADERetailing
₹1,160per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,160implied FY26 P/E 23.9× · EV/EBITDA 22.1×
Against CMP ₹3,086.10−62.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹891₹1,697
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,600₹3,291
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,171 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,368 |
| Enterprise value | 5,539 |
| less net debt | 31 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,570 |
| ÷ 4.80 crore shares | ₹1,160 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,199 | 1,289 | 1,398 | 1,531 | 1,697 |
| 10.50% | 1,104 | 1,179 | 1,268 | 1,375 | 1,505 |
| 11.00% | 1,022 | 1,086 | 1,160 | 1,247 | 1,352 |
| 11.50% | 952 | 1,006 | 1,068 | 1,141 | 1,227 |
| 12.00% | 891 | 937 | 990 | 1,051 | 1,123 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,086.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 893 · 1,152 · 1,482 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 364 | 490 | 641 | 779 | 947 | 1,150 | 1,398 | 1,698 | 2,063 |
| growth % | 16.3 | 34.7 | 30.9 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 33 | 79 | 151 | 250 | 304 | 369 | 449 | 545 | 662 |
| margin % | 9.1 | 16.2 | 23.5 | 32.1 | 32.1 | 32.1 | 32.1 | 32.1 | 32.1 |
| less depreciation | (29) | (37) | (41) | (39) | (47) | (58) | (70) | (85) | (103) |
| EBIT | 4 | 42 | 110 | 212 | 257 | 312 | 379 | 460 | 559 |
| less tax on EBIT | (34) | (41) | (50) | (61) | (74) | (89) | |||
| NOPAT | 178 | 216 | 262 | 318 | 387 | 470 | |||
| add depreciation | 29 | 37 | 41 | 39 | 47 | 58 | 70 | 85 | 103 |
| less capex | (7) | (3) | (5) | (27) | (32) | (47) | (66) | (91) | (124) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (16) | (19) | (23) | (28) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 41 | 13 | 166 | — | 218 | 257 | 303 | 357 | 421 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 207 | 220 | 233 | 248 | 263 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 212 | 257 | 312 | 379 | 460 | 559 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 257 | 312 | 379 | 460 | 559 | |
| Profit after tax | 223 | 216 | 262 | 318 | 387 | 470 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 31 | 249 | 506 | 809 | 1,166 | 1,587 |
| Working capital | 61 | 74 | 90 | 109 | 132 | 161 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,917 | 2,902 | 2,891 | 2,887 | 2,893 | 2,913 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,618 | 2,834 | 3,096 | 3,414 | 3,801 | 4,270 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 250 | 304 | 369 | 448 | 544 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (47) | (66) | (91) | (124) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 218 | 257 | 303 | 357 | 421 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 218 | 257 | 303 | 357 | 421 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 32.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,160 | (62.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.