Models
CARYSIL LIMITEDCARYSILConsumer Durables
₹363per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹363implied FY26 P/E 9.7× · EV/EBITDA 7.4×
Against CMP ₹1,166.30−68.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹245₹600
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹732₹1,281
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 153 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,143 |
| Enterprise value | 1,296 |
| less net debt | (262) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,034 |
| ÷ 2.85 crore shares | ₹363 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 380 | 420 | 468 | 527 | 600 |
| 10.50% | 338 | 372 | 411 | 458 | 516 |
| 11.00% | 303 | 331 | 363 | 402 | 448 |
| 11.50% | 272 | 296 | 323 | 356 | 393 |
| 12.00% | 245 | 266 | 289 | 316 | 348 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,166.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 229 · 358 · 499 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 594 | 684 | 816 | 924 | 1,049 | 1,190 | 1,351 | 1,533 | 1,740 |
| growth % | 22.7 | 15.1 | 19.3 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | 107 | 129 | 137 | 176 | 200 | 227 | 258 | 293 | 332 |
| margin % | 18.1 | 18.8 | 16.8 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 |
| less depreciation | (26) | (32) | (36) | (40) | (45) | (51) | (58) | (66) | (75) |
| EBIT | 81 | 96 | 101 | 136 | 155 | 176 | 200 | 227 | 258 |
| less tax on EBIT | (32) | (37) | (42) | (48) | (54) | (61) | |||
| NOPAT | 104 | 118 | 134 | 152 | 173 | 196 | |||
| add depreciation | 26 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 51 | 58 | 66 | 75 |
| less capex | (58) | (93) | (47) | (111) | (127) | (123) | (117) | (106) | (90) |
| less working-capital build | — | (43) | (49) | (55) | (63) | (71) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 13 | (35) | (54) | — | (6) | 13 | 39 | 70 | 110 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (6) | 11 | 30 | 49 | 69 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 270, dividends at 6.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 136 | 155 | 176 | 200 | 227 | 258 |
| Interest at 7.4% on debt | (20) | (20) | (20) | (20) | (20) | |
| Profit before tax | 135 | 156 | 180 | 207 | 238 | |
| Profit after tax | 99 | 103 | 119 | 137 | 158 | 181 |
| Dividends | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (12) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8 | (21) | (31) | (17) | 27 | 109 |
| Working capital | 318 | 361 | 410 | 465 | 528 | 599 |
| Net block and other assets | 716 | 798 | 870 | 929 | 969 | 984 |
| Debt | 270 | 270 | 270 | 270 | 270 | 270 |
| Equity | 614 | 710 | 821 | 949 | 1,096 | 1,264 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 105 | 122 | 140 | 161 | 185 | |
| Investing (capex) | (127) | (123) | (117) | (106) | (90) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (12) | |
| Net change in cash | (29) | (10) | 14 | 44 | 82 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (22) | (2) | 23 | 55 | 95 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 19.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹363 | (68.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.