Models
CCL PRODUCTS (I) LTDCCLAgricultural Food & other Products
₹259per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹259implied FY26 P/E 8.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.2×
Against CMP ₹1,075.00−75.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹184₹408
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹816₹1,242
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,162 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,366 |
| Enterprise value | 4,528 |
| less net debt | (1,074) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,454 |
| ÷ 13.35 crore shares | ₹259 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 270 | 295 | 325 | 362 | 408 |
| 10.50% | 243 | 264 | 289 | 318 | 355 |
| 11.00% | 221 | 238 | 259 | 283 | 312 |
| 11.50% | 201 | 216 | 233 | 253 | 277 |
| 12.00% | 184 | 197 | 211 | 228 | 248 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,075.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (79) · 256 · 493 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,071 | 2,654 | 3,106 | 4,457 | 5,795 | 7,533 | 9,793 | 12,731 | 16,550 |
| growth % | 41.7 | 28.1 | 17.0 | 43.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 400 | 445 | 555 | 733 | 950 | 1,235 | 1,606 | 2,088 | 2,714 |
| margin % | 19.3 | 16.8 | 17.9 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 |
| less depreciation | (64) | (98) | (98) | (152) | (197) | (256) | (333) | (433) | (563) |
| EBIT | 336 | 348 | 457 | 581 | 753 | 979 | 1,273 | 1,655 | 2,151 |
| less tax on EBIT | (92) | (119) | (155) | (201) | (261) | (340) | |||
| NOPAT | 489 | 634 | 825 | 1,072 | 1,394 | 1,812 | |||
| add depreciation | 64 | 98 | 98 | 152 | 197 | 256 | 333 | 433 | 563 |
| less capex | (332) | (513) | (418) | (70) | (93) | (167) | (278) | (440) | (675) |
| less working-capital build | — | (481) | (626) | (814) | (1,058) | (1,375) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (134) | (458) | (128) | — | 257 | 288 | 313 | 328 | 324 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 244 | 246 | 241 | 228 | 203 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,291, dividends at 26.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 581 | 753 | 979 | 1,273 | 1,655 | 2,151 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (107) | (107) | (107) | (107) | (107) | |
| Profit before tax | 646 | 872 | 1,166 | 1,548 | 2,044 | |
| Profit after tax | 388 | 544 | 734 | 982 | 1,303 | 1,721 |
| Dividends | (103) | (145) | (196) | (262) | (348) | (460) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 217 | 238 | 240 | 200 | 91 | (135) |
| Working capital | 1,606 | 2,087 | 2,713 | 3,527 | 4,584 | 5,959 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,504 | 2,400 | 2,311 | 2,256 | 2,264 | 2,376 |
| Debt | 1,291 | 1,291 | 1,291 | 1,291 | 1,291 | 1,291 |
| Equity | 2,345 | 2,743 | 3,282 | 4,001 | 4,957 | 6,218 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 260 | 365 | 501 | 679 | 909 | |
| Investing (capex) | (93) | (167) | (278) | (440) | (675) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (145) | (196) | (262) | (348) | (460) | |
| Net change in cash | 22 | 1 | (39) | (110) | (226) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 167 | 197 | 223 | 238 | 234 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 16.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹259 | (75.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.