Models
CEAT LIMITEDCEATLTDAuto Components
₹3,911per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3,911implied FY26 P/E 26.8× · EV/EBITDA 9.4×
Against CMP ₹3,285.00+19.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies15.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3197%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,583₹6,576
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,061₹4,438
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 465 |
| PV of terminal value | 18,149 |
| Enterprise value | 18,614 |
| less net debt | (2,971) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 15,643 |
| ÷ 4.00 crore shares | ₹3,911 |
97% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 4,089 | 4,541 | 5,084 | 5,747 | 6,576 |
| 10.50% | 3,623 | 3,999 | 4,443 | 4,976 | 5,627 |
| 11.00% | 3,226 | 3,542 | 3,911 | 4,347 | 4,870 |
| 11.50% | 2,882 | 3,152 | 3,462 | 3,825 | 4,253 |
| 12.00% | 2,583 | 2,815 | 3,079 | 3,384 | 3,740 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,285.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,515 · 3,847 · 5,599 |
| Draws below the CMP | 31% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,315 | 11,943 | 13,218 | 15,678 | 18,578 | 22,015 | 26,088 | 30,915 | 36,634 |
| growth % | 20.8 | 5.6 | 10.7 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| EBITDA | 940 | 1,594 | 1,445 | 1,976 | 2,341 | 2,774 | 3,287 | 3,895 | 4,616 |
| margin % | 8.3 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| less depreciation | (469) | (509) | (563) | (697) | (817) | (969) | (1,148) | (1,360) | (1,612) |
| EBIT | 471 | 1,085 | 882 | 1,279 | 1,523 | 1,805 | 2,139 | 2,535 | 3,004 |
| less tax on EBIT | (371) | (442) | (524) | (620) | (735) | (871) | |||
| NOPAT | 908 | 1,082 | 1,282 | 1,519 | 1,800 | 2,133 | |||
| add depreciation | 469 | 509 | 563 | 697 | 817 | 969 | 1,148 | 1,360 | 1,612 |
| less capex | (879) | (867) | (943) | (2,267) | (2,694) | (2,685) | (2,580) | (2,345) | (1,934) |
| less working-capital build | — | (32) | (38) | (45) | (53) | (63) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 326 | 852 | 149 | — | (827) | (472) | 42 | 762 | 1,748 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (785) | (404) | 32 | 529 | 1,093 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,011, dividends at 17.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,279 | 1,523 | 1,805 | 2,139 | 2,535 | 3,004 |
| Interest at 14.5% on debt | (437) | (437) | (437) | (437) | (437) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,087 | 1,369 | 1,703 | 2,098 | 2,567 | |
| Profit after tax | 698 | 772 | 972 | 1,209 | 1,490 | 1,823 |
| Dividends | (121) | (134) | (169) | (210) | (259) | (317) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 40 | (1,231) | (2,183) | (2,661) | (2,468) | (1,348) |
| Working capital | 176 | 208 | 246 | 291 | 344 | 407 |
| Net block and other assets | 13,687 | 15,563 | 17,279 | 18,711 | 19,696 | 20,018 |
| Debt | 3,011 | 3,011 | 3,011 | 3,011 | 3,011 | 3,011 |
| Equity | 5,054 | 5,691 | 6,494 | 7,493 | 8,723 | 10,229 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,557 | 1,903 | 2,312 | 2,797 | 3,372 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,694) | (2,685) | (2,580) | (2,345) | (1,934) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (134) | (169) | (210) | (259) | (317) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,271) | (951) | (478) | 193 | 1,120 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,137) | (782) | (268) | 452 | 1,438 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18.5% | 12.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3,911 | 19.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.