Models
CEIGALL INDIA LIMITEDCEIGALLConstruction
₹568per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹568implied FY26 P/E 30.8× · EV/EBITDA 18.7×
Against CMP ₹381.60+48.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies8.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹422₹860
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹223₹406
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,326 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,604 |
| Enterprise value | 10,930 |
| less net debt | (1,030) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,900 |
| ÷ 17.42 crore shares | ₹568 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 589 | 639 | 698 | 770 | 860 |
| 10.50% | 538 | 579 | 627 | 685 | 756 |
| 11.00% | 494 | 528 | 568 | 616 | 673 |
| 11.50% | 455 | 485 | 519 | 558 | 605 |
| 12.00% | 422 | 447 | 476 | 509 | 548 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹381.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 435 · 565 · 727 |
| Draws below the CMP | 2% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,437 | 4,022 | 4,706 | 5,506 | 6,442 | 7,538 | 8,819 |
| growth % | — | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| EBITDA | 518 | 585 | 687 | 804 | 941 | 1,100 | 1,288 |
| margin % | 15.1 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| less depreciation | (56) | (62) | (71) | (83) | (97) | (113) | (132) |
| EBIT | 463 | 524 | 617 | 721 | 844 | 987 | 1,155 |
| less tax on EBIT | (136) | (160) | (188) | (219) | (257) | (300) | |
| NOPAT | 388 | 456 | 534 | 625 | 731 | 855 | |
| add depreciation | 56 | 62 | 71 | 83 | 97 | 113 | 132 |
| less capex | (168) | (78) | (89) | (103) | (119) | (138) | (159) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (687) | — | 437 | 513 | 602 | 706 | 828 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 415 | 439 | 464 | 490 | 518 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,310, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 524 | 617 | 721 | 844 | 987 | 1,155 |
| Interest at 11.8% on debt | (155) | (155) | (155) | (155) | (155) | |
| Profit before tax | 462 | 567 | 689 | 833 | 1,001 | |
| Profit after tax | 312 | 342 | 419 | 510 | 616 | 741 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 280 | 603 | 1,002 | 1,490 | 2,081 | 2,795 |
| Working capital | (736) | (736) | (736) | (736) | (736) | (736) |
| Net block and other assets | 5,979 | 5,998 | 6,019 | 6,041 | 6,066 | 6,092 |
| Debt | 1,310 | 1,310 | 1,310 | 1,310 | 1,310 | 1,310 |
| Equity | 2,146 | 2,488 | 2,908 | 3,418 | 4,034 | 4,775 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 412 | 502 | 607 | 729 | 873 | |
| Investing (capex) | (89) | (103) | (119) | (138) | (159) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 323 | 399 | 488 | 592 | 714 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 323 | 399 | 488 | 592 | 714 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17% | 14.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹568 | 48.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.