Models
CEINSYS TECH LIMITEDCEINSYSIT - Services
₹834per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹834implied FY26 P/E 11.7× · EV/EBITDA 12.3×
Against CMP ₹706.00+18.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(2.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹628₹1,245
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹672₹1,250
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 327 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,459 |
| Enterprise value | 1,786 |
| less net debt | (40) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,746 |
| ÷ 2.09 crore shares | ₹834 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 863 | 933 | 1,016 | 1,118 | 1,245 |
| 10.50% | 791 | 848 | 916 | 998 | 1,098 |
| 11.00% | 729 | 777 | 834 | 901 | 981 |
| 11.50% | 675 | 716 | 764 | 820 | 885 |
| 12.00% | 628 | 664 | 704 | 751 | 806 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹706.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 491 · 815 · 1,123 |
| Draws below the CMP | 32% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.27 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 219 | 253 | 418 | 661 | 859 | 1,117 | 1,452 | 1,887 | 2,453 |
| growth % | 8.2 | 15.2 | 65.3 | 58.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 32 | 44 | 78 | 145 | 188 | 245 | 318 | 413 | 537 |
| margin % | 14.5 | 17.4 | 18.7 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (5) | (8) | (11) | (15) | (19) | (25) | (32) | (42) |
| EBIT | 27 | 39 | 70 | 133 | 173 | 226 | 293 | 381 | 496 |
| less tax on EBIT | (21) | (27) | (35) | (46) | (60) | (78) | |||
| NOPAT | 113 | 146 | 190 | 247 | 321 | 418 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 25 | 32 | 42 |
| less capex | (3) | (5) | (22) | (14) | (18) | (23) | (30) | (39) | (50) |
| less working-capital build | — | (94) | (122) | (159) | (207) | (269) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 44 | 44 | (16) | — | 49 | 63 | 83 | 108 | 140 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 46 | 54 | 64 | 75 | 88 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 47, dividends at 4.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 133 | 173 | 226 | 293 | 381 | 496 |
| Interest at 14.5% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 167 | 219 | 286 | 374 | 489 | |
| Profit after tax | 133 | 141 | 184 | 241 | 316 | 412 |
| Dividends | (6) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (15) | (19) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 43 | 92 | 158 | 245 | 361 |
| Working capital | 314 | 408 | 530 | 689 | 896 | 1,165 |
| Net block and other assets | 609 | 613 | 617 | 622 | 629 | 637 |
| Debt | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 |
| Equity | 673 | 807 | 983 | 1,213 | 1,514 | 1,906 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 61 | 81 | 107 | 141 | 185 | |
| Investing (capex) | (18) | (23) | (30) | (39) | (50) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (15) | (19) | |
| Net change in cash | 36 | 49 | 66 | 87 | 115 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 43 | 58 | 77 | 102 | 135 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 21.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹834 | 18.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.