Models
CELLO WORLD LIMITEDCELLOConsumer Durables
₹164per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹164implied FY26 P/E 11.7× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹333.90−50.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹125₹243
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹336₹674
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 596 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,937 |
| Enterprise value | 3,533 |
| less net debt | 92 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,625 |
| ÷ 22.09 crore shares | ₹164 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 170 | 183 | 199 | 218 | 243 |
| 10.50% | 156 | 167 | 180 | 196 | 215 |
| 11.00% | 144 | 153 | 164 | 177 | 192 |
| 11.50% | 134 | 142 | 151 | 161 | 174 |
| 12.00% | 125 | 132 | 139 | 148 | 159 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹333.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 125 · 163 · 204 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,000 | 2,136 | 2,324 | 2,533 | 2,761 | 3,009 | 3,280 | 3,575 |
| growth % | — | 6.8 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 510 | 510 | 464 | 507 | 552 | 602 | 656 | 715 |
| margin % | 25.5 | 23.9 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| less depreciation | (57) | (62) | (78) | (84) | (91) | (99) | (108) | (118) |
| EBIT | 453 | 448 | 386 | 423 | 461 | 503 | 548 | 597 |
| less tax on EBIT | (95) | (104) | (113) | (124) | (135) | (147) | ||
| NOPAT | 291 | 319 | 348 | 379 | 413 | 450 | ||
| add depreciation | 57 | 62 | 78 | 84 | 91 | 99 | 108 | 118 |
| less capex | (265) | (167) | (219) | (238) | (222) | (201) | (175) | (142) |
| less working-capital build | — | (102) | (111) | (121) | (132) | (144) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (30) | 95 | — | 63 | 106 | 156 | 215 | 283 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 59 | 90 | 120 | 149 | 177 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 35, dividends at 11.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 386 | 423 | 461 | 503 | 548 | 597 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 420 | 458 | 500 | 545 | 594 | |
| Profit after tax | 332 | 317 | 345 | 377 | 411 | 448 |
| Dividends | (39) | (37) | (40) | (44) | (48) | (52) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 126 | 150 | 213 | 324 | 489 | 717 |
| Working capital | 1,133 | 1,234 | 1,345 | 1,466 | 1,598 | 1,742 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,744 | 1,899 | 2,030 | 2,131 | 2,198 | 2,221 |
| Debt | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| Equity | 2,701 | 2,981 | 3,286 | 3,619 | 3,982 | 4,378 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 298 | 325 | 355 | 387 | 422 | |
| Investing (capex) | (238) | (222) | (201) | (175) | (142) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (37) | (40) | (44) | (48) | (52) | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 63 | 110 | 165 | 229 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 60 | 103 | 154 | 213 | 281 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 20% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹164 | (50.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.