Models
CEMINDIA PROJECTS LIMITEDCEMPROConstruction
₹746per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹746implied FY26 P/E 21.3× · EV/EBITDA 12.9×
Against CMP ₹1,249.80−40.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies23.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹569₹1,100
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹503₹1,649
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,941 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,270 |
| Enterprise value | 13,211 |
| less net debt | (392) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,819 |
| ÷ 17.18 crore shares | ₹746 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 772 | 831 | 903 | 990 | 1,100 |
| 10.50% | 709 | 759 | 817 | 888 | 973 |
| 11.00% | 656 | 698 | 746 | 804 | 873 |
| 11.50% | 610 | 645 | 686 | 734 | 790 |
| 12.00% | 569 | 600 | 634 | 675 | 722 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,249.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 601 · 742 · 914 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.50 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,091 | 7,718 | 9,097 | 10,061 | 11,117 | 12,284 | 13,574 | 14,999 | 16,574 |
| growth % | 33.7 | 51.6 | 17.9 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 400 | 745 | 869 | 1,022 | 1,134 | 1,253 | 1,385 | 1,530 | 1,691 |
| margin % | 7.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (114) | (208) | (192) | (166) | (178) | (197) | (217) | (240) | (265) |
| EBIT | 286 | 537 | 677 | 856 | 956 | 1,056 | 1,167 | 1,290 | 1,425 |
| less tax on EBIT | (230) | (257) | (284) | (314) | (347) | (383) | |||
| NOPAT | 625 | 699 | 772 | 853 | 943 | 1,042 | |||
| add depreciation | 114 | 208 | 192 | 166 | 178 | 197 | 217 | 240 | 265 |
| less capex | (418) | (356) | (228) | (264) | (289) | (299) | (307) | (313) | (318) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 53 | 348 | (25) | — | 588 | 670 | 764 | 869 | 989 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 558 | 573 | 588 | 603 | 618 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 867, dividends at 5.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 856 | 956 | 1,056 | 1,167 | 1,290 | 1,425 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (69) | (69) | (69) | (69) | (69) | |
| Profit before tax | 887 | 987 | 1,098 | 1,221 | 1,356 | |
| Profit after tax | 598 | 648 | 722 | 803 | 892 | 991 |
| Dividends | (34) | (37) | (41) | (46) | (51) | (57) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 475 | 975 | 1,553 | 2,221 | 2,988 | 3,870 |
| Working capital | (143) | (143) | (143) | (143) | (143) | (143) |
| Net block and other assets | 6,755 | 6,866 | 6,968 | 7,058 | 7,131 | 7,184 |
| Debt | 867 | 867 | 867 | 867 | 867 | 867 |
| Equity | 2,400 | 3,011 | 3,691 | 4,448 | 5,290 | 6,224 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 826 | 918 | 1,020 | 1,132 | 1,256 | |
| Investing (capex) | (289) | (299) | (307) | (313) | (318) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (37) | (41) | (46) | (51) | (57) | |
| Net change in cash | 500 | 578 | 667 | 768 | 882 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 537 | 620 | 713 | 819 | 938 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹746 | (40.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.