Models
CENTRAL DEPO SER (I) LTDCDSLCapital Markets
₹332per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹332implied FY26 P/E 14.7× · EV/EBITDA 11.8×
Against CMP ₹1,360.00−75.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies44.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹258₹480
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,116₹1,674
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,678 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,216 |
| Enterprise value | 6,894 |
| less net debt | 51 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,945 |
| ÷ 20.90 crore shares | ₹332 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 343 | 368 | 398 | 434 | 480 |
| 10.50% | 317 | 338 | 362 | 391 | 427 |
| 11.00% | 295 | 312 | 332 | 356 | 385 |
| 11.50% | 275 | 290 | 307 | 327 | 351 |
| 12.00% | 258 | 271 | 286 | 302 | 322 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,360.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 278 · 331 · 395 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 555 | 812 | 1,082 | 1,145 | 1,214 | 1,286 | 1,364 | 1,445 | 1,532 |
| growth % | 0.7 | 46.3 | 33.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 323 | 489 | 624 | 586 | 621 | 659 | 698 | 740 | 784 |
| margin % | 58.3 | 60.3 | 57.7 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.2 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (27) | (49) | (66) | (70) | (75) | (79) | (84) | (89) |
| EBIT | 304 | 462 | 575 | 520 | 551 | 584 | 619 | 656 | 696 |
| less tax on EBIT | (130) | (138) | (147) | (155) | (165) | (175) | |||
| NOPAT | 389 | 413 | 437 | 464 | 492 | 521 | |||
| add depreciation | 19 | 27 | 49 | 66 | 70 | 75 | 79 | 84 | 89 |
| less capex | (197) | (54) | (124) | (100) | (106) | (106) | (107) | (107) | (107) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 52 | 332 | 418 | — | 377 | 405 | 435 | 468 | 502 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 358 | 346 | 335 | 324 | 314 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 57.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 520 | 551 | 584 | 619 | 656 | 696 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 551 | 584 | 619 | 656 | 696 | |
| Profit after tax | 456 | 413 | 437 | 464 | 492 | 521 |
| Dividends | (261) | (236) | (251) | (266) | (282) | (299) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 51 | 192 | 346 | 515 | 701 | 905 |
| Working capital | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,355 | 2,390 | 2,422 | 2,450 | 2,473 | 2,490 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,002 | 2,178 | 2,365 | 2,563 | 2,773 | 2,996 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 482 | 511 | 542 | 574 | 609 | |
| Investing (capex) | (106) | (106) | (107) | (107) | (107) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (236) | (251) | (266) | (282) | (299) | |
| Net change in cash | 140 | 154 | 169 | 186 | 204 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 377 | 405 | 435 | 468 | 502 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 51.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹332 | (75.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.