Models
CENTRAL MINE P N D INST LCMPDICommercial Services & Supplies
₹143per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹143implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 12.5×
Against CMP ₹214.30−33.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies24.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹112₹204
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹150₹284
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,303 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,420 |
| Enterprise value | 9,723 |
| less net debt | 459 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 10,182 |
| ÷ 71.40 crore shares | ₹143 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 147 | 157 | 170 | 185 | 204 |
| 10.50% | 136 | 145 | 155 | 167 | 182 |
| 11.00% | 127 | 134 | 143 | 153 | 165 |
| 11.50% | 119 | 125 | 132 | 140 | 150 |
| 12.00% | 112 | 117 | 123 | 130 | 138 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹214.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 120 · 142 · 169 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,317 | 2,502 | 2,702 | 2,918 | 3,152 | 3,404 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 778 | 841 | 908 | 981 | 1,059 | 1,144 |
| margin % | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 |
| less depreciation | (35) | (38) | (41) | (44) | (47) | (51) |
| EBIT | 743 | 803 | 867 | 937 | 1,012 | 1,093 |
| less tax on EBIT | (190) | (206) | (222) | (240) | (259) | (280) |
| NOPAT | 553 | 598 | 645 | 697 | 753 | 813 |
| add depreciation | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 | 51 |
| less capex | (64) | (70) | (69) | (67) | (65) | (61) |
| less working-capital build | — | (65) | (70) | (76) | (82) | (88) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 500 | 547 | 598 | 654 | 714 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 475 | 468 | 461 | 454 | 447 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 61.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 743 | 803 | 867 | 937 | 1,012 | 1,093 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 803 | 867 | 937 | 1,012 | 1,093 | |
| Profit after tax | 613 | 598 | 645 | 697 | 753 | 813 |
| Dividends | (375) | (365) | (394) | (426) | (460) | (497) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 459 | 594 | 747 | 919 | 1,113 | 1,330 |
| Working capital | 812 | 877 | 947 | 1,022 | 1,104 | 1,192 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,988 | 2,020 | 2,049 | 2,072 | 2,089 | 2,099 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,283 | 2,516 | 2,767 | 3,038 | 3,331 | 3,647 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 570 | 616 | 665 | 718 | 776 | |
| Investing (capex) | (70) | (69) | (67) | (65) | (61) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (365) | (394) | (426) | (460) | (497) | |
| Net change in cash | 135 | 153 | 172 | 194 | 218 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 500 | 547 | 598 | 654 | 714 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 33.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹143 | (33.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.