Models
CENTUM ELECTRONICS LTDCENTUMAerospace & Defense
₹884per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹884implied FY26 P/E 24.4× · EV/EBITDA 10.3×
Against CMP ₹4,239.40−79.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹683₹1,286
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,044₹4,450
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 388 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,001 |
| Enterprise value | 1,389 |
| less net debt | (84) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,305 |
| ÷ 1.48 crore shares | ₹884 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 915 | 982 | 1,063 | 1,162 | 1,286 |
| 10.50% | 843 | 899 | 966 | 1,045 | 1,143 |
| 11.00% | 782 | 829 | 884 | 950 | 1,028 |
| 11.50% | 729 | 769 | 816 | 870 | 934 |
| 12.00% | 683 | 717 | 757 | 802 | 856 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,239.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 754 · 885 · 1,044 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 923 | 1,091 | 1,155 | 953 | 905 | 860 | 817 | 776 | 737 |
| growth % | 18.3 | 18.2 | 5.9 | (17.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 76 | 81 | 82 | 135 | 129 | 122 | 116 | 110 | 105 |
| margin % | 8.3 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 14.2 |
| less depreciation | (44) | (45) | (44) | (20) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (16) | (15) |
| EBIT | 32 | 36 | 38 | 116 | 110 | 105 | 100 | 95 | 90 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (12) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 102 | 97 | 92 | 87 | 83 | 79 | |||
| add depreciation | 44 | 45 | 44 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| less capex | (22) | (33) | (19) | (40) | (38) | (32) | (27) | (22) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 20 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 48 | 181 | (48) | — | 102 | 101 | 99 | 98 | 96 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 97 | 86 | 77 | 68 | 60 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 122, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 116 | 110 | 105 | 100 | 95 | 90 |
| Interest at 12.7% on debt | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | |
| Profit before tax | 95 | 89 | 84 | 79 | 74 | |
| Profit after tax | (52) | 83 | 78 | 74 | 69 | 65 |
| Dividends | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 38 | 126 | 214 | 300 | 384 | 467 |
| Working capital | 503 | 478 | 454 | 431 | 410 | 389 |
| Net block and other assets | 762 | 782 | 797 | 807 | 814 | 817 |
| Debt | 122 | 122 | 122 | 122 | 122 | 122 |
| Equity | 325 | 408 | 487 | 561 | 630 | 695 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 127 | 120 | 113 | 107 | 101 | |
| Investing (capex) | (38) | (32) | (27) | (22) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 88 | 87 | 86 | 84 | 83 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 88 | 87 | 86 | 84 | 83 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 14.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹884 | (79.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.