Models
CENTURY PLYBOARDS (I) LTDCENTURYPLYConsumer Durables
₹43per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹43implied FY26 P/E 3.3× · EV/EBITDA 4.0×
Against CMP ₹718.00−94.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3197%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹10₹109
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹619₹859
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 77 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,482 |
| Enterprise value | 2,559 |
| less net debt | (1,600) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 959 |
| ÷ 22.25 crore shares | ₹43 |
97% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 47 | 59 | 72 | 88 | 109 |
| 10.50% | 36 | 45 | 56 | 69 | 85 |
| 11.00% | 26 | 34 | 43 | 54 | 67 |
| 11.50% | 18 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 51 |
| 12.00% | 10 | 16 | 23 | 30 | 39 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹718.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (45) · 42 · 116 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,647 | 3,886 | 4,528 | 5,397 | 6,423 | 7,643 | 9,095 | 10,823 | 12,880 |
| growth % | 20.5 | 6.6 | 16.5 | 19.2 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| EBITDA | 559 | 521 | 473 | 643 | 764 | 910 | 1,082 | 1,288 | 1,533 |
| margin % | 15.3 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| less depreciation | (78) | (95) | (137) | (182) | (218) | (260) | (309) | (368) | (438) |
| EBIT | 481 | 426 | 336 | 461 | 546 | 650 | 773 | 920 | 1,095 |
| less tax on EBIT | (115) | (136) | (162) | (192) | (229) | (273) | |||
| NOPAT | 346 | 410 | 488 | 581 | 691 | 822 | |||
| add depreciation | 78 | 95 | 137 | 182 | 218 | 260 | 309 | 368 | 438 |
| less capex | (491) | (850) | (665) | (412) | (488) | (514) | (531) | (537) | (525) |
| less working-capital build | — | (247) | (294) | (350) | (416) | (496) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (53) | (598) | (668) | — | (107) | (60) | 9 | 106 | 239 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (101) | (51) | 7 | 73 | 149 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,630, dividends at 8.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 461 | 546 | 650 | 773 | 920 | 1,095 |
| Interest at 7.3% on debt | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | |
| Profit before tax | 427 | 531 | 654 | 801 | 976 | |
| Profit after tax | 263 | 321 | 399 | 491 | 602 | 733 |
| Dividends | (22) | (27) | (34) | (42) | (51) | (62) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 30 | (193) | (377) | (499) | (534) | (447) |
| Working capital | 1,300 | 1,547 | 1,841 | 2,191 | 2,607 | 3,103 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,774 | 4,043 | 4,297 | 4,519 | 4,688 | 4,775 |
| Debt | 1,630 | 1,630 | 1,630 | 1,630 | 1,630 | 1,630 |
| Equity | 2,630 | 2,923 | 3,288 | 3,738 | 4,288 | 4,958 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 292 | 364 | 450 | 553 | 675 | |
| Investing (capex) | (488) | (514) | (531) | (537) | (525) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (27) | (34) | (42) | (51) | (62) | |
| Net change in cash | (224) | (183) | (122) | (35) | 87 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (196) | (149) | (81) | 16 | 150 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19% | 11.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹43 | (94.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.