Models
CERA SANITARYWARE LTDCERAConsumer Durables
₹2,328per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,328implied FY25 P/E 12.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹5,570.00−58.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3073%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,824₹3,334
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,461₹6,740
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 822 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,190 |
| Enterprise value | 3,012 |
| less net debt | (9) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,003 |
| ÷ 1.29 crore shares | ₹2,328 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,403 | 2,573 | 2,776 | 3,024 | 3,334 |
| 10.50% | 2,225 | 2,365 | 2,532 | 2,731 | 2,975 |
| 11.00% | 2,072 | 2,190 | 2,328 | 2,491 | 2,687 |
| 11.50% | 1,939 | 2,040 | 2,156 | 2,292 | 2,452 |
| 12.00% | 1,824 | 1,910 | 2,009 | 2,123 | 2,256 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,570.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,950 · 2,312 · 2,750 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,446 | 1,804 | 1,879 | 1,926 | 1,974 | 2,024 | 2,074 | 2,126 | 2,179 |
| growth % | 18.1 | 24.7 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 223 | 288 | 302 | 298 | 306 | 314 | 322 | 330 | 338 |
| margin % | 15.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| less depreciation | (32) | (33) | (37) | (41) | (41) | (42) | (44) | (45) | (46) |
| EBIT | 191 | 255 | 265 | 258 | 265 | 271 | 278 | 285 | 292 |
| less tax on EBIT | (52) | (53) | (54) | (56) | (57) | (58) | |||
| NOPAT | 206 | 212 | 217 | 222 | 228 | 234 | |||
| add depreciation | 32 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 46 |
| less capex | (20) | (39) | (64) | (29) | (30) | (36) | (42) | (48) | (55) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (14) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 78 | 123 | 172 | — | 211 | 211 | 211 | 211 | 211 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 200 | 181 | 163 | 147 | 132 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 18, dividends at 31.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 258 | 265 | 271 | 278 | 285 | 292 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 263 | 270 | 277 | 283 | 291 | |
| Profit after tax | 246 | 210 | 216 | 221 | 227 | 232 |
| Dividends | (78) | (67) | (68) | (70) | (72) | (74) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 153 | 295 | 435 | 573 | 709 |
| Working capital | 493 | 506 | 518 | 531 | 545 | 558 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,360 | 1,348 | 1,341 | 1,339 | 1,343 | 1,352 |
| Debt | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Equity | 1,368 | 1,512 | 1,659 | 1,811 | 1,965 | 2,124 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 240 | 246 | 252 | 258 | 265 | |
| Investing (capex) | (30) | (36) | (42) | (48) | (55) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (67) | (68) | (70) | (72) | (74) | |
| Net change in cash | 143 | 142 | 140 | 138 | 136 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 15.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,328 | (58.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.