Models
CESC LTDCESCPower
₹38per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹38implied FY26 P/E 2.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.4×
Against CMP ₹145.45−73.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies22.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3198%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(10)₹133
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹138₹205
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 534 |
| PV of terminal value | 21,622 |
| Enterprise value | 22,156 |
| less net debt | (17,111) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,045 |
| ÷ 133.00 crore shares | ₹38 |
98% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 44 | 61 | 80 | 104 | 133 |
| 10.50% | 28 | 41 | 57 | 76 | 99 |
| 11.00% | 13 | 25 | 38 | 54 | 72 |
| 11.50% | 1 | 11 | 22 | 35 | 50 |
| 12.00% | (10) | (1) | 8 | 19 | 32 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹145.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (10) · 36 · 91 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14,246 | 15,293 | 17,001 | 18,570 | 20,241 | 22,063 | 24,049 | 26,213 | 28,572 |
| growth % | 13.6 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,149 | 2,126 | 2,689 | 3,447 | 3,765 | 4,104 | 4,473 | 4,876 | 5,314 |
| margin % | 15.1 | 13.9 | 15.8 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 |
| less depreciation | (878) | (1,217) | (1,205) | (1,228) | (1,336) | (1,456) | (1,587) | (1,730) | (1,886) |
| EBIT | 1,271 | 909 | 1,484 | 2,219 | 2,429 | 2,648 | 2,886 | 3,146 | 3,429 |
| less tax on EBIT | (524) | (573) | (625) | (681) | (742) | (809) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,695 | 1,856 | 2,023 | 2,205 | 2,403 | 2,620 | |||
| add depreciation | 878 | 1,217 | 1,205 | 1,228 | 1,336 | 1,456 | 1,587 | 1,730 | 1,886 |
| less capex | (696) | (771) | (1,863) | (3,916) | (4,271) | (3,928) | (3,489) | (2,940) | (2,263) |
| less working-capital build | — | (114) | (124) | (135) | (147) | (160) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,282 | 1,581 | 719 | — | (1,193) | (573) | 168 | 1,046 | 2,082 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (1,132) | (490) | 129 | 726 | 1,302 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 21,319, dividends at 52.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,219 | 2,429 | 2,648 | 2,886 | 3,146 | 3,429 |
| Interest at 6.9% on debt | (1,471) | (1,471) | (1,471) | (1,471) | (1,471) | |
| Profit before tax | 958 | 1,177 | 1,415 | 1,675 | 1,958 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,542 | 732 | 899 | 1,081 | 1,279 | 1,496 |
| Dividends | (803) | (381) | (468) | (563) | (667) | (779) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4,208 | 1,510 | (656) | (2,175) | (2,919) | (2,740) |
| Working capital | 1,267 | 1,380 | 1,504 | 1,639 | 1,787 | 1,947 |
| Net block and other assets | 40,995 | 43,930 | 46,402 | 48,305 | 49,514 | 49,891 |
| Debt | 21,319 | 21,319 | 21,319 | 21,319 | 21,319 | 21,319 |
| Equity | 13,189 | 13,540 | 13,970 | 14,488 | 15,101 | 15,817 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,954 | 2,231 | 2,533 | 2,862 | 3,221 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4,271) | (3,928) | (3,489) | (2,940) | (2,263) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (381) | (468) | (563) | (667) | (779) | |
| Net change in cash | (2,698) | (2,165) | (1,520) | (744) | 179 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (2,317) | (1,697) | (956) | (78) | 958 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 18.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹38 | (73.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.