Models
CHALET HOTELS LIMITEDCHALETLeisure Services
₹1,330per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,330implied FY26 P/E 55.1× · EV/EBITDA 26.4×
Against CMP ₹881.00+51.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies19.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹984₹2,024
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹691₹1,070
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,563 |
| PV of terminal value | 25,734 |
| Enterprise value | 31,297 |
| less net debt | (2,160) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 29,137 |
| ÷ 21.90 crore shares | ₹1,330 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,380 | 1,497 | 1,637 | 1,809 | 2,024 |
| 10.50% | 1,258 | 1,355 | 1,470 | 1,608 | 1,777 |
| 11.00% | 1,153 | 1,235 | 1,330 | 1,443 | 1,579 |
| 11.50% | 1,063 | 1,132 | 1,213 | 1,307 | 1,418 |
| 12.00% | 984 | 1,044 | 1,112 | 1,191 | 1,283 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹881.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 931 · 1,321 · 1,836 |
| Draws below the CMP | 7% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.41 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,128 | 1,417 | 1,718 | 2,770 | 3,601 | 4,681 | 6,085 | 7,911 | 10,284 |
| growth % | 122.2 | 25.6 | 21.2 | 61.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 495 | 585 | 736 | 1,186 | 1,541 | 2,003 | 2,604 | 3,386 | 4,402 |
| margin % | 43.9 | 41.2 | 42.8 | 42.8 | 42.8 | 42.8 | 42.8 | 42.8 | 42.8 |
| less depreciation | (117) | (138) | (179) | (230) | (299) | (389) | (505) | (657) | (854) |
| EBIT | 378 | 446 | 557 | 956 | 1,242 | 1,615 | 2,099 | 2,729 | 3,548 |
| less tax on EBIT | (203) | (263) | (342) | (445) | (579) | (752) | |||
| NOPAT | 754 | 979 | 1,273 | 1,654 | 2,151 | 2,796 | |||
| add depreciation | 117 | 138 | 179 | 230 | 299 | 389 | 505 | 657 | 854 |
| less capex | (175) | (436) | (969) | (338) | (439) | (545) | (674) | (832) | (1,024) |
| less working-capital build | — | (52) | (67) | (87) | (113) | (147) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 302 | 253 | (19) | — | 787 | 1,049 | 1,398 | 1,862 | 2,478 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 747 | 897 | 1,077 | 1,292 | 1,549 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,324, dividends at 3.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 956 | 1,242 | 1,615 | 2,099 | 2,729 | 3,548 |
| Interest at 7.4% on debt | (172) | (172) | (172) | (172) | (172) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,070 | 1,443 | 1,927 | 2,557 | 3,376 | |
| Profit after tax | 645 | 843 | 1,137 | 1,519 | 2,015 | 2,660 |
| Dividends | (22) | (29) | (39) | (52) | (69) | (90) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 164 | 787 | 1,662 | 2,873 | 4,530 | 6,782 |
| Working capital | 173 | 225 | 292 | 379 | 492 | 639 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,972 | 7,112 | 7,268 | 7,438 | 7,613 | 7,784 |
| Debt | 2,324 | 2,324 | 2,324 | 2,324 | 2,324 | 2,324 |
| Equity | 3,697 | 4,512 | 5,610 | 7,077 | 9,024 | 11,594 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,091 | 1,459 | 1,937 | 2,558 | 3,367 | |
| Investing (capex) | (439) | (545) | (674) | (832) | (1,024) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (29) | (39) | (52) | (69) | (90) | |
| Net change in cash | 623 | 875 | 1,211 | 1,658 | 2,252 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 651 | 914 | 1,263 | 1,726 | 2,342 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 42.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,330 | 51.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.