Models
CHAMAN LAL SETIA EXP LTDCLSELAgricultural Food & other Products
₹317per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹317implied FY26 P/E 12.6× · EV/EBITDA 10.6×
Against CMP ₹296.80+6.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹246₹459
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹204₹325
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 472 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,187 |
| Enterprise value | 1,660 |
| less net debt | (82) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,578 |
| ÷ 4.97 crore shares | ₹317 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 328 | 352 | 380 | 415 | 459 |
| 10.50% | 303 | 323 | 346 | 374 | 408 |
| 11.00% | 281 | 298 | 317 | 340 | 368 |
| 11.50% | 263 | 277 | 293 | 312 | 335 |
| 12.00% | 246 | 258 | 272 | 288 | 307 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹296.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 274 · 318 · 372 |
| Draws below the CMP | 28% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.81 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,387 | 1,356 | 1,495 | 1,440 | 1,389 | 1,341 | 1,294 | 1,248 | 1,205 |
| growth % | 48.8 | (2.3) | 10.3 | (3.7) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) |
| EBITDA | 159 | 162 | 141 | 157 | 151 | 146 | 141 | 136 | 131 |
| margin % | 11.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (7) | (4) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| EBIT | 153 | 155 | 137 | 152 | 147 | 142 | 137 | 132 | 128 |
| less tax on EBIT | (39) | (37) | (36) | (35) | (34) | (32) | |||
| NOPAT | 113 | 110 | 106 | 102 | 99 | 95 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| less capex | (9) | (14) | (17) | (10) | (10) | (8) | (7) | (6) | (4) |
| less working-capital build | — | 23 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 28 | (31) | 55 | — | 127 | 124 | 121 | 117 | 114 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 121 | 106 | 93 | 81 | 71 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 83, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 152 | 147 | 142 | 137 | 132 | 128 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 140 | 135 | 130 | 125 | 120 | |
| Profit after tax | 115 | 104 | 101 | 97 | 93 | 90 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 122 | 240 | 356 | 468 | 576 |
| Working capital | 652 | 630 | 607 | 586 | 566 | 546 |
| Net block and other assets | 387 | 393 | 397 | 400 | 402 | 402 |
| Debt | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| Equity | 838 | 943 | 1,043 | 1,140 | 1,233 | 1,323 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 131 | 127 | 122 | 118 | 113 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (8) | (7) | (6) | (4) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 122 | 118 | 115 | 112 | 109 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 122 | 118 | 115 | 112 | 109 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -3.5% | 10.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹317 | 6.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.