Models
CHAMBAL FERTILIZERS LTDCHAMBLFERTFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹906per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹906implied FY26 P/E 18.8× · EV/EBITDA 13.8×
Against CMP ₹419.40+116.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(10.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹677₹1,364
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹400₹559
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,913 |
| PV of terminal value | 31,133 |
| Enterprise value | 37,046 |
| less net debt | (747) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 36,299 |
| ÷ 40.07 crore shares | ₹906 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 938 | 1,016 | 1,109 | 1,222 | 1,364 |
| 10.50% | 858 | 922 | 998 | 1,089 | 1,201 |
| 11.00% | 789 | 843 | 906 | 981 | 1,070 |
| 11.50% | 729 | 775 | 828 | 890 | 964 |
| 12.00% | 677 | 717 | 762 | 814 | 875 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹419.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 670 · 890 · 1,163 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 27,773 | 17,966 | 16,646 | 20,794 | 25,992 | 32,490 | 40,613 | 50,766 | 63,457 |
| growth % | 72.8 | (35.3) | (7.3) | 24.9 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,819 | 2,043 | 2,483 | 2,678 | 3,353 | 4,191 | 5,239 | 6,549 | 8,186 |
| margin % | 6.6 | 11.4 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| less depreciation | (308) | (313) | (330) | (349) | (442) | (552) | (690) | (863) | (1,079) |
| EBIT | 1,511 | 1,731 | 2,153 | 2,330 | 2,911 | 3,639 | 4,549 | 5,686 | 7,107 |
| less tax on EBIT | (594) | (742) | (928) | (1,160) | (1,450) | (1,812) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,735 | 2,169 | 2,711 | 3,389 | 4,236 | 5,295 | |||
| add depreciation | 308 | 313 | 330 | 349 | 442 | 552 | 690 | 863 | 1,079 |
| less capex | (197) | (610) | (572) | (886) | (1,118) | (1,214) | (1,287) | (1,322) | (1,295) |
| less working-capital build | — | (853) | (1,066) | (1,332) | (1,665) | (2,081) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3,043 | 2,716 | 822 | — | 640 | 984 | 1,460 | 2,111 | 2,998 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 608 | 842 | 1,124 | 1,465 | 1,874 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,054, dividends at 20.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,330 | 2,911 | 3,639 | 4,549 | 5,686 | 7,107 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (84) | (84) | (84) | (84) | (84) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,827 | 3,555 | 4,464 | 5,601 | 7,023 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,953 | 2,106 | 2,648 | 3,326 | 4,173 | 5,232 |
| Dividends | (401) | (432) | (543) | (682) | (855) | (1,073) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 308 | 454 | 832 | 1,547 | 2,740 | 4,603 |
| Working capital | 3,418 | 4,271 | 5,336 | 6,668 | 8,334 | 10,415 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,676 | 11,352 | 12,013 | 12,610 | 13,070 | 13,286 |
| Debt | 1,054 | 1,054 | 1,054 | 1,054 | 1,054 | 1,054 |
| Equity | 10,390 | 12,064 | 14,169 | 16,813 | 20,131 | 24,290 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,695 | 2,135 | 2,684 | 3,371 | 4,229 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,118) | (1,214) | (1,287) | (1,322) | (1,295) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (432) | (543) | (682) | (855) | (1,073) | |
| Net change in cash | 146 | 378 | 715 | 1,193 | 1,862 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 578 | 921 | 1,397 | 2,049 | 2,935 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25% | 12.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹906 | 116.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.