Models
CHENNAI PETROLEUM CORP LTCHENNPETROPetroleum Products
₹3,709per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3,709implied FY26 P/E 13.2× · EV/EBITDA 11.8×
Against CMP ₹1,570.00+136.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(17.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,846₹5,432
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹717₹1,663
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 12,891 |
| PV of terminal value | 43,385 |
| Enterprise value | 56,276 |
| less net debt | (1,046) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 55,230 |
| ÷ 14.89 crore shares | ₹3,709 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3,835 | 4,125 | 4,473 | 4,899 | 5,432 |
| 10.50% | 3,530 | 3,771 | 4,056 | 4,398 | 4,817 |
| 11.00% | 3,269 | 3,472 | 3,709 | 3,989 | 4,325 |
| 11.50% | 3,043 | 3,216 | 3,415 | 3,648 | 3,923 |
| 12.00% | 2,846 | 2,994 | 3,164 | 3,360 | 3,588 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,570.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3,007 · 3,678 · 4,506 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 90,908 | 79,273 | 71,050 | 78,611 | 86,865 | 95,986 | 1,06,064 | 1,17,201 | 1,29,507 |
| growth % | 50.3 | (12.8) | (10.4) | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 5,697 | 4,476 | 1,016 | 4,757 | 5,299 | 5,855 | 6,470 | 7,149 | 7,900 |
| margin % | 6.3 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| less depreciation | (573) | (606) | (607) | (610) | (695) | (768) | (849) | (938) | (1,036) |
| EBIT | 5,124 | 3,870 | 409 | 4,147 | 4,604 | 5,087 | 5,621 | 6,212 | 6,864 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,074) | (1,192) | (1,318) | (1,456) | (1,609) | (1,778) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,073 | 3,411 | 3,770 | 4,165 | 4,603 | 5,086 | |||
| add depreciation | 573 | 606 | 607 | 610 | 695 | 768 | 849 | 938 | 1,036 |
| less capex | (418) | (603) | (685) | (903) | (956) | (1,022) | (1,092) | (1,166) | (1,243) |
| less working-capital build | — | (470) | (520) | (574) | (635) | (701) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 6,368 | 2,092 | 667 | — | 2,680 | 2,995 | 3,347 | 3,739 | 4,177 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,544 | 2,561 | 2,578 | 2,595 | 2,612 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,951, dividends at 6.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,147 | 4,604 | 5,087 | 5,621 | 6,212 | 6,864 |
| Interest at 4.8% on debt | (94) | (94) | (94) | (94) | (94) | |
| Profit before tax | 4,510 | 4,994 | 5,528 | 6,118 | 6,770 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,103 | 3,342 | 3,700 | 4,096 | 4,533 | 5,017 |
| Dividends | (194) | (207) | (229) | (254) | (281) | (311) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 905 | 3,309 | 6,005 | 9,029 | 12,418 | 16,215 |
| Working capital | 4,501 | 4,972 | 5,492 | 6,066 | 6,701 | 7,402 |
| Net block and other assets | 14,628 | 14,889 | 15,143 | 15,387 | 15,616 | 15,823 |
| Debt | 1,951 | 1,951 | 1,951 | 1,951 | 1,951 | 1,951 |
| Equity | 11,109 | 14,244 | 17,715 | 21,557 | 25,809 | 30,515 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,566 | 3,948 | 4,370 | 4,836 | 5,351 | |
| Investing (capex) | (956) | (1,022) | (1,092) | (1,166) | (1,243) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (207) | (229) | (254) | (281) | (311) | |
| Net change in cash | 2,404 | 2,697 | 3,024 | 3,389 | 3,797 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,611 | 2,926 | 3,278 | 3,670 | 4,108 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 6.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3,709 | 136.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.