Models
CHEVIOT COMPANY LIMITEDCHEVIOTPaper Forest & Jute Products
₹1,131per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,131implied FY26 P/E 9.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.8×
Against CMP ₹1,202.00−5.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹859₹1,675
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹898₹1,371
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 127 |
| PV of terminal value | 538 |
| Enterprise value | 665 |
| less net debt | (4) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 661 |
| ÷ 0.58 crore shares | ₹1,131 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,170 | 1,262 | 1,372 | 1,507 | 1,675 |
| 10.50% | 1,074 | 1,150 | 1,241 | 1,349 | 1,481 |
| 11.00% | 992 | 1,056 | 1,131 | 1,220 | 1,326 |
| 11.50% | 921 | 976 | 1,039 | 1,112 | 1,199 |
| 12.00% | 859 | 906 | 960 | 1,022 | 1,094 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,202.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 659 · 1,111 · 1,530 |
| Draws below the CMP | 61% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 564 | 463 | 439 | 547 | 682 | 848 | 1,056 | 1,315 | 1,637 |
| growth % | (1.3) | (17.9) | (5.1) | 24.6 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| EBITDA | 65 | 47 | 53 | 76 | 94 | 117 | 146 | 181 | 226 |
| margin % | 11.6 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (16) | (20) | (25) |
| EBIT | 61 | 40 | 46 | 68 | 84 | 104 | 130 | 162 | 201 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (21) | (27) | (33) | (41) | (52) | |||
| NOPAT | 50 | 62 | 78 | 97 | 120 | 150 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 25 |
| less capex | (24) | (9) | (17) | (11) | (14) | (17) | (20) | (24) | (29) |
| less working-capital build | — | (39) | (48) | (60) | (75) | (93) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 31 | 27 | 9 | — | 20 | 26 | 32 | 41 | 52 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 19 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 7, dividends at 5.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 68 | 84 | 104 | 130 | 162 | 201 |
| Interest at 8.2% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 83 | 104 | 129 | 161 | 201 | |
| Profit after tax | 52 | 62 | 77 | 96 | 120 | 149 |
| Dividends | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 19 | 40 | 66 | 100 | 143 |
| Working capital | 158 | 197 | 245 | 305 | 380 | 473 |
| Net block and other assets | 609 | 613 | 617 | 621 | 625 | 630 |
| Debt | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Equity | 706 | 764 | 837 | 928 | 1,041 | 1,182 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 33 | 42 | 52 | 65 | 81 | |
| Investing (capex) | (14) | (17) | (20) | (24) | (29) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | |
| Net change in cash | 16 | 21 | 26 | 34 | 43 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 20 | 25 | 32 | 41 | 51 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 24.5% | 13.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,131 | (5.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.