Models
CIAN Agro Ind & Infra LtdBSE 519477Agricultural Food & other Products
₹2,748per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,748implied FY26 P/E 23.9× · EV/EBITDA 18.6×
Against CMP ₹1,321.85+107.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies1.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,012₹4,217
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹644₹3,633
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,906 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,960 |
| Enterprise value | 8,866 |
| less net debt | (1,176) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,690 |
| ÷ 2.80 crore shares | ₹2,748 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,854 | 3,102 | 3,400 | 3,763 | 4,217 |
| 10.50% | 2,595 | 2,801 | 3,044 | 3,336 | 3,693 |
| 11.00% | 2,372 | 2,546 | 2,748 | 2,987 | 3,274 |
| 11.50% | 2,180 | 2,327 | 2,498 | 2,696 | 2,931 |
| 12.00% | 2,012 | 2,138 | 2,283 | 2,451 | 2,646 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,321.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,871 · 2,675 · 3,717 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 290 | 171 | 1,029 | 2,234 | 2,905 | 3,776 | 4,909 | 6,382 | 8,296 |
| growth % | 14.1 | (41.1) | 502.8 | 117.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 25 | 19 | 142 | 476 | 619 | 804 | 1,046 | 1,359 | 1,767 |
| margin % | 8.8 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (8) | (47) | (107) | (139) | (181) | (236) | (306) | (398) |
| EBIT | 17 | 11 | 95 | 369 | 479 | 623 | 810 | 1,053 | 1,369 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (36) | (47) | (62) | (80) | (104) | |||
| NOPAT | 341 | 443 | 576 | 748 | 973 | 1,265 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 8 | 47 | 107 | 139 | 181 | 236 | 306 | 398 |
| less capex | (10) | 0 | (55) | (35) | (46) | (100) | (181) | (301) | (478) |
| less working-capital build | — | (180) | (234) | (305) | (396) | (515) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 27 | 65 | 227 | — | 355 | 423 | 499 | 582 | 670 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 337 | 362 | 384 | 404 | 419 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,199, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 369 | 479 | 623 | 810 | 1,053 | 1,369 |
| Interest at 13.8% on debt | (165) | (165) | (165) | (165) | (165) | |
| Profit before tax | 314 | 458 | 644 | 887 | 1,203 | |
| Profit after tax | 223 | 290 | 423 | 596 | 820 | 1,112 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 23 | 225 | 495 | 841 | 1,270 | 1,787 |
| Working capital | 602 | 782 | 1,016 | 1,321 | 1,717 | 2,232 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,620 | 3,527 | 3,446 | 3,391 | 3,386 | 3,465 |
| Debt | 1,199 | 1,199 | 1,199 | 1,199 | 1,199 | 1,199 |
| Equity | 2,227 | 2,517 | 2,939 | 3,535 | 4,355 | 5,467 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 249 | 370 | 526 | 730 | 995 | |
| Investing (capex) | (46) | (100) | (181) | (301) | (478) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 203 | 270 | 346 | 429 | 517 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 203 | 270 | 346 | 429 | 517 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 21.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,748 | 107.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.