Models
CIPLA LTDCIPLAPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹552per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹552implied FY26 P/E 13.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹1,366.00−59.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹433₹791
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,166₹1,673
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 11,341 |
| PV of terminal value | 32,531 |
| Enterprise value | 43,872 |
| less net debt | 760 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 44,632 |
| ÷ 80.79 crore shares | ₹552 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 570 | 610 | 658 | 717 | 791 |
| 10.50% | 528 | 561 | 601 | 648 | 706 |
| 11.00% | 492 | 520 | 552 | 591 | 638 |
| 11.50% | 460 | 484 | 512 | 544 | 582 |
| 12.00% | 433 | 453 | 477 | 504 | 536 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,366.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 455 · 549 · 660 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22,753 | 25,774 | 27,548 | 28,163 | 28,726 | 29,300 | 29,886 | 30,484 | 31,094 |
| growth % | 4.5 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 4,845 | 6,096 | 7,128 | 5,607 | 5,716 | 5,831 | 5,947 | 6,066 | 6,188 |
| margin % | 21.3 | 23.7 | 25.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 |
| less depreciation | (1,172) | (1,051) | (1,107) | (1,211) | (1,235) | (1,260) | (1,285) | (1,311) | (1,337) |
| EBIT | 3,672 | 5,045 | 6,021 | 4,396 | 4,481 | 4,571 | 4,662 | 4,756 | 4,851 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,139) | (1,161) | (1,184) | (1,208) | (1,232) | (1,256) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,257 | 3,321 | 3,387 | 3,455 | 3,524 | 3,594 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,172 | 1,051 | 1,107 | 1,211 | 1,235 | 1,260 | 1,285 | 1,311 | 1,337 |
| less capex | (841) | (1,098) | (1,162) | (1,599) | (1,637) | (1,631) | (1,623) | (1,614) | (1,604) |
| less working-capital build | — | (180) | (183) | (187) | (191) | (194) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,397 | 3,036 | 3,843 | — | 2,739 | 2,833 | 2,930 | 3,030 | 3,132 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,600 | 2,423 | 2,257 | 2,103 | 1,959 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 258, dividends at 33.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,396 | 4,481 | 4,571 | 4,662 | 4,756 | 4,851 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | |
| Profit before tax | 4,461 | 4,550 | 4,642 | 4,735 | 4,830 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,879 | 3,305 | 3,372 | 3,439 | 3,509 | 3,579 |
| Dividends | (1,292) | (1,101) | (1,123) | (1,145) | (1,168) | (1,192) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,018 | 2,641 | 4,336 | 6,105 | 7,952 | 9,877 |
| Working capital | 8,989 | 9,169 | 9,352 | 9,539 | 9,729 | 9,924 |
| Net block and other assets | 32,489 | 32,891 | 33,262 | 33,599 | 33,903 | 34,170 |
| Debt | 258 | 258 | 258 | 258 | 258 | 258 |
| Equity | 34,520 | 36,725 | 38,974 | 41,268 | 43,608 | 45,995 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,361 | 4,448 | 4,538 | 4,629 | 4,722 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,637) | (1,631) | (1,623) | (1,614) | (1,604) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,101) | (1,123) | (1,145) | (1,168) | (1,192) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,623 | 1,695 | 1,769 | 1,846 | 1,925 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,723 | 2,818 | 2,915 | 3,015 | 3,117 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 19.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹552 | (59.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.