₹229per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹229implied FY26 P/E 10.5× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹846.00−72.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹176₹335
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹652₹1,212
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 503 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,904 |
| Enterprise value | 2,407 |
| less net debt | 28 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,435 |
| ÷ 10.63 crore shares | ₹229 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 237 | 255 | 276 | 302 | 335 |
| 10.50% | 218 | 233 | 250 | 271 | 297 |
| 11.00% | 202 | 215 | 229 | 246 | 267 |
| 11.50% | 188 | 199 | 211 | 225 | 242 |
| 12.00% | 176 | 185 | 196 | 208 | 222 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹846.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 188 · 229 · 278 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 936 | 791 | 967 | 957 | 947 | 938 | 928 | 919 | 910 |
| growth % | 36.6 | (15.4) | 22.1 | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
| EBITDA | 402 | 332 | 388 | 355 | 351 | 348 | 344 | 341 | 337 |
| margin % | 43.0 | 42.0 | 40.1 | 37.1 | 37.1 | 37.1 | 37.1 | 37.1 | 37.1 |
| less depreciation | (36) | (46) | (69) | (78) | (77) | (76) | (75) | (74) | (74) |
| EBIT | 366 | 286 | 319 | 277 | 275 | 272 | 269 | 266 | 264 |
| less tax on EBIT | (72) | (71) | (70) | (69) | (69) | (68) | |||
| NOPAT | 206 | 204 | 202 | 200 | 198 | 196 | |||
| add depreciation | 36 | 46 | 69 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 74 |
| less capex | (183) | (232) | (142) | (201) | (199) | (170) | (143) | (115) | (88) |
| less working-capital build | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 96 | 5 | 72 | — | 84 | 110 | 135 | 159 | 183 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 80 | 94 | 104 | 111 | 115 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 27.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 277 | 275 | 272 | 269 | 266 | 264 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 275 | 272 | 269 | 266 | 264 | |
| Profit after tax | 230 | 204 | 202 | 200 | 198 | 196 |
| Dividends | (64) | (57) | (56) | (56) | (55) | (54) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 28 | 55 | 109 | 188 | 293 | 421 |
| Working capital | 245 | 242 | 240 | 237 | 235 | 233 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,510 | 1,633 | 1,727 | 1,794 | 1,835 | 1,850 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,584 | 1,731 | 1,877 | 2,021 | 2,163 | 2,305 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 283 | 280 | 277 | 275 | 272 | |
| Investing (capex) | (199) | (170) | (143) | (115) | (88) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (57) | (56) | (56) | (55) | (54) | |
| Net change in cash | 27 | 54 | 79 | 104 | 129 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 84 | 110 | 135 | 159 | 183 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1% | 37.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹229 | (72.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.