Models
CMS INFO SYSTEMS LIMITEDCMSINFOCommercial Services & Supplies
₹210per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹210implied FY26 P/E 11.8× · EV/EBITDA 5.5×
Against CMP ₹224.89−6.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies7.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹161₹309
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹227₹430
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 583 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,673 |
| Enterprise value | 3,257 |
| less net debt | 112 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,369 |
| ÷ 16.01 crore shares | ₹210 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 218 | 234 | 254 | 279 | 309 |
| 10.50% | 200 | 214 | 230 | 250 | 274 |
| 11.00% | 185 | 197 | 210 | 227 | 246 |
| 11.50% | 172 | 182 | 194 | 207 | 223 |
| 12.00% | 161 | 170 | 179 | 191 | 204 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹224.89; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 161 · 209 · 263 |
| Draws below the CMP | 65% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,915 | 2,265 | 2,425 | 2,487 | 2,549 | 2,613 | 2,678 | 2,745 | 2,814 |
| growth % | 20.4 | 18.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 538 | 599 | 627 | 587 | 602 | 617 | 632 | 648 | 664 |
| margin % | 28.1 | 26.5 | 25.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 |
| less depreciation | (132) | (150) | (161) | (208) | (212) | (217) | (222) | (228) | (234) |
| EBIT | 406 | 449 | 465 | 379 | 390 | 400 | 410 | 420 | 431 |
| less tax on EBIT | (96) | (98) | (101) | (103) | (106) | (108) | |||
| NOPAT | 284 | 292 | 299 | 307 | 314 | 322 | |||
| add depreciation | 132 | 150 | 161 | 208 | 212 | 217 | 222 | 228 | 234 |
| less capex | (193) | (108) | (154) | (409) | (421) | (388) | (354) | (318) | (280) |
| less working-capital build | — | (16) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (18) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 213 | 332 | 328 | — | 66 | 111 | 157 | 206 | 257 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 63 | 95 | 121 | 143 | 161 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 379 | 390 | 400 | 410 | 420 | 431 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 390 | 400 | 410 | 420 | 431 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 292 | 299 | 307 | 314 | 322 |
| Dividends | (148) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 112 | 179 | 290 | 447 | 653 | 911 |
| Working capital | 649 | 666 | 682 | 699 | 717 | 735 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,477 | 2,686 | 2,857 | 2,989 | 3,080 | 3,126 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,432 | 2,724 | 3,023 | 3,330 | 3,644 | 3,966 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 487 | 499 | 512 | 525 | 538 | |
| Investing (capex) | (421) | (388) | (354) | (318) | (280) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 66 | 111 | 157 | 206 | 257 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 66 | 111 | 157 | 206 | 257 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 23.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹210 | (6.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.