Models
COAL INDIA LTDCOALINDIAConsumable Fuels
₹871per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹871implied FY26 P/E 17.2× · EV/EBITDA 13.1×
Against CMP ₹426.40+104.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(3.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹666₹1,280
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹370₹491
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,15,034 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,26,831 |
| Enterprise value | 5,41,865 |
| less net debt | (5,202) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,36,663 |
| ÷ 616.27 crore shares | ₹871 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 900 | 969 | 1,052 | 1,154 | 1,280 |
| 10.50% | 828 | 885 | 953 | 1,035 | 1,134 |
| 11.00% | 766 | 814 | 871 | 937 | 1,017 |
| 11.50% | 713 | 754 | 801 | 856 | 922 |
| 12.00% | 666 | 701 | 742 | 788 | 842 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹426.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 673 · 863 · 1,106 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,38,252 | 1,42,324 | 1,43,369 | 1,68,400 | 1,97,870 | 2,32,498 | 2,73,185 | 3,20,992 | 3,77,166 |
| growth % | 26.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 |
| EBITDA | 36,818 | 47,971 | 47,063 | 41,242 | 48,478 | 56,962 | 66,930 | 78,643 | 92,406 |
| margin % | 26.6 | 33.7 | 32.8 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| less depreciation | (4,675) | (6,735) | (9,145) | (10,137) | (11,872) | (13,950) | (16,391) | (19,260) | (22,630) |
| EBIT | 32,143 | 41,236 | 37,918 | 31,105 | 36,606 | 43,012 | 50,539 | 59,384 | 69,776 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8,212) | (9,664) | (11,355) | (13,342) | (15,677) | (18,421) | |||
| NOPAT | 22,894 | 26,942 | 31,657 | 37,197 | 43,706 | 51,355 | |||
| add depreciation | 4,675 | 6,735 | 9,145 | 10,137 | 11,872 | 13,950 | 16,391 | 19,260 | 22,630 |
| less capex | (14,209) | (16,380) | (12,804) | (12,092) | (14,247) | (16,740) | (19,669) | (23,111) | (27,156) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3,006) | (3,532) | (4,150) | (4,876) | (5,730) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 21,477 | 1,723 | 16,396 | — | 21,562 | 25,335 | 29,769 | 34,978 | 41,099 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 20,465 | 21,664 | 22,932 | 24,275 | 25,697 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 13,821, dividends at 52.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 31,105 | 36,606 | 43,012 | 50,539 | 59,384 | 69,776 |
| Interest at 10.7% on debt | (1,479) | (1,479) | (1,479) | (1,479) | (1,479) | |
| Profit before tax | 35,127 | 41,533 | 49,060 | 57,905 | 68,297 | |
| Profit after tax | 31,094 | 25,854 | 30,568 | 36,108 | 42,618 | 50,266 |
| Dividends | (16,197) | (13,470) | (15,926) | (18,812) | (22,204) | (26,189) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8,620 | 15,623 | 23,943 | 33,811 | 45,497 | 59,319 |
| Working capital | 17,209 | 20,215 | 23,747 | 27,897 | 32,773 | 38,503 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,59,831 | 2,62,206 | 2,64,996 | 2,68,274 | 2,72,126 | 2,76,652 |
| Debt | 13,821 | 13,821 | 13,821 | 13,821 | 13,821 | 13,821 |
| Equity | 1,21,005 | 1,33,388 | 1,48,031 | 1,65,327 | 1,85,741 | 2,09,818 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 34,720 | 40,986 | 48,349 | 57,001 | 67,167 | |
| Investing (capex) | (14,247) | (16,740) | (19,669) | (23,111) | (27,156) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13,470) | (15,926) | (18,812) | (22,204) | (26,189) | |
| Net change in cash | 7,003 | 8,320 | 9,868 | 11,686 | 13,822 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 20,473 | 24,246 | 28,680 | 33,890 | 40,011 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17.5% | 24.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹871 | 104.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.