Models
COCHIN MINERALS & RUTILE LTD.BSE 513353Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹154per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹154implied FY26 P/E 9.7× · EV/EBITDA 10.5×
Against CMP ₹306.00−49.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹123₹218
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹197₹330
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 29 |
| PV of terminal value | 84 |
| Enterprise value | 113 |
| less net debt | 8 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 121 |
| ÷ 0.78 crore shares | ₹154 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 159 | 170 | 183 | 198 | 218 |
| 10.50% | 148 | 157 | 167 | 180 | 195 |
| 11.00% | 138 | 146 | 154 | 165 | 177 |
| 11.50% | 130 | 136 | 144 | 152 | 162 |
| 12.00% | 123 | 128 | 134 | 141 | 150 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹306.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 136 · 155 · 178 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.87 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 444 | 300 | 319 | 287 | 273 | 259 | 246 | 234 | 222 |
| growth % | 53.2 | (32.3) | 6.2 | (10.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 72 | 38 | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| margin % | 16.2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| EBIT | 71 | 37 | 30 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | |||
| NOPAT | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| less capex | (0) | (2) | (3) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (3) | (2) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (4) | 4 | (2) | — | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 6, dividends at 50.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Interest at 2.3% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
| Profit after tax | 13 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Dividends | (6) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | 18 | 22 | 27 | 33 | 39 |
| Working capital | 94 | 89 | 85 | 80 | 76 | 72 |
| Net block and other assets | 140 | 144 | 146 | 148 | 149 | 149 |
| Debt | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Equity | 172 | 175 | 177 | 180 | 182 | 184 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | |
| Investing (capex) | (5) | (4) | (3) | (2) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 3.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹154 | (49.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.