Models
COCHIN SHIPYARD LIMITEDCOCHINSHIPIndustrial Manufacturing
₹226per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹226implied FY26 P/E 8.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.5×
Against CMP ₹1,381.00−83.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹169₹339
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,187₹1,980
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,925 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,008 |
| Enterprise value | 6,933 |
| less net debt | (993) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,940 |
| ÷ 26.31 crore shares | ₹226 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 234 | 253 | 276 | 304 | 339 |
| 10.50% | 214 | 230 | 249 | 271 | 298 |
| 11.00% | 197 | 210 | 226 | 244 | 266 |
| 11.50% | 182 | 193 | 206 | 222 | 240 |
| 12.00% | 169 | 179 | 190 | 203 | 218 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,381.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 180 · 224 · 276 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.00 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,365 | 3,830 | 4,820 | 5,022 | 5,223 | 5,432 | 5,649 | 5,875 | 6,110 |
| growth % | (25.9) | 62.0 | 25.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| EBITDA | 315 | 869 | 878 | 811 | 846 | 880 | 915 | 952 | 990 |
| margin % | 13.3 | 22.7 | 18.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 |
| less depreciation | (69) | (75) | (103) | (130) | (136) | (141) | (147) | (153) | (159) |
| EBIT | 246 | 794 | 775 | 682 | 710 | 739 | 768 | 799 | 831 |
| less tax on EBIT | (193) | (201) | (209) | (217) | (226) | (235) | |||
| NOPAT | 489 | 509 | 530 | 551 | 573 | 596 | |||
| add depreciation | 69 | 75 | 103 | 130 | 136 | 141 | 147 | 153 | 159 |
| less capex | (45) | (30) | (403) | (70) | (73) | (99) | (128) | (158) | (191) |
| less working-capital build | — | (70) | (73) | (76) | (79) | (82) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,844 | (202) | (700) | — | 502 | 499 | 494 | 489 | 482 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 477 | 427 | 381 | 339 | 302 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,099, dividends at 35.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 682 | 710 | 739 | 768 | 799 | 831 |
| Interest at 15.8% on debt | (174) | (174) | (174) | (174) | (174) | |
| Profit before tax | 537 | 565 | 595 | 625 | 657 | |
| Profit after tax | 717 | 385 | 405 | 426 | 448 | 471 |
| Dividends | (257) | (138) | (145) | (153) | (161) | (169) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 105 | 345 | 574 | 792 | 996 | 1,185 |
| Working capital | 1,749 | 1,819 | 1,891 | 1,967 | 2,046 | 2,127 |
| Net block and other assets | 12,677 | 12,614 | 12,572 | 12,553 | 12,558 | 12,590 |
| Debt | 1,099 | 1,099 | 1,099 | 1,099 | 1,099 | 1,099 |
| Equity | 5,873 | 6,120 | 6,380 | 6,654 | 6,941 | 7,244 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 451 | 474 | 498 | 522 | 548 | |
| Investing (capex) | (73) | (99) | (128) | (158) | (191) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (138) | (145) | (153) | (161) | (169) | |
| Net change in cash | 240 | 229 | 217 | 204 | 189 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 378 | 374 | 370 | 364 | 358 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4% | 16.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹226 | (83.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.