₹763per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹763implied FY26 P/E 15.5× · EV/EBITDA 12.2×
Against CMP ₹1,846.50−58.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹585₹1,120
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,008₹2,021
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,339 |
| PV of terminal value | 26,737 |
| Enterprise value | 33,076 |
| less net debt | 694 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 33,770 |
| ÷ 44.25 crore shares | ₹763 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 789 | 849 | 921 | 1,009 | 1,120 |
| 10.50% | 726 | 776 | 835 | 906 | 993 |
| 11.00% | 672 | 714 | 763 | 821 | 891 |
| 11.50% | 625 | 661 | 703 | 751 | 808 |
| 12.00% | 585 | 615 | 651 | 691 | 739 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,846.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 481 · 744 · 1,032 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,015 | 9,179 | 12,051 | 16,403 | 21,324 | 27,721 | 36,037 | 46,848 | 60,902 |
| growth % | 24.6 | 14.5 | 31.3 | 36.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,228 | 1,439 | 1,694 | 2,710 | 3,518 | 4,574 | 5,946 | 7,730 | 10,049 |
| margin % | 15.3 | 15.7 | 14.1 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| less depreciation | (259) | (319) | (428) | (682) | (896) | (1,164) | (1,514) | (1,968) | (2,558) |
| EBIT | 970 | 1,121 | 1,266 | 2,028 | 2,623 | 3,410 | 4,433 | 5,762 | 7,491 |
| less tax on EBIT | (272) | (351) | (457) | (594) | (772) | (1,004) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,756 | 2,271 | 2,953 | 3,839 | 4,990 | 6,487 | |||
| add depreciation | 259 | 319 | 428 | 682 | 896 | 1,164 | 1,514 | 1,968 | 2,558 |
| less capex | (158) | (266) | (614) | (743) | (960) | (1,285) | (1,719) | (2,298) | (3,069) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1,191) | (1,548) | (2,013) | (2,616) | (3,401) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 792 | 638 | 623 | — | 1,017 | 1,284 | 1,621 | 2,044 | 2,574 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 965 | 1,098 | 1,248 | 1,418 | 1,610 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 400, dividends at 34.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,028 | 2,623 | 3,410 | 4,433 | 5,762 | 7,491 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (32) | (32) | (32) | (32) | (32) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,591 | 3,378 | 4,401 | 5,730 | 7,459 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,566 | 2,244 | 2,925 | 3,811 | 4,962 | 6,459 |
| Dividends | (543) | (779) | (1,015) | (1,322) | (1,722) | (2,241) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,094 | 1,304 | 1,545 | 1,816 | 2,110 | 2,415 |
| Working capital | 3,968 | 5,159 | 6,707 | 8,720 | 11,336 | 14,737 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,820 | 9,884 | 10,004 | 10,210 | 10,540 | 11,052 |
| Debt | 400 | 400 | 400 | 400 | 400 | 400 |
| Equity | 9,681 | 11,146 | 13,056 | 15,544 | 18,785 | 23,003 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,948 | 2,541 | 3,312 | 4,314 | 5,616 | |
| Investing (capex) | (960) | (1,285) | (1,719) | (2,298) | (3,069) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (779) | (1,015) | (1,322) | (1,722) | (2,241) | |
| Net change in cash | 210 | 241 | 271 | 294 | 305 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 989 | 1,256 | 1,593 | 2,016 | 2,547 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 16.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹763 | (58.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.