Models
CONCORD BIOTECH LIMITEDCONCORDBIOPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹260per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹260implied FY26 P/E 10.0× · EV/EBITDA 7.4×
Against CMP ₹1,510.00−82.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹205₹368
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹987₹1,704
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 795 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,911 |
| Enterprise value | 2,706 |
| less net debt | 12 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,718 |
| ÷ 10.46 crore shares | ₹260 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 268 | 286 | 308 | 335 | 368 |
| 10.50% | 249 | 264 | 282 | 303 | 329 |
| 11.00% | 232 | 245 | 260 | 277 | 298 |
| 11.50% | 218 | 229 | 241 | 256 | 273 |
| 12.00% | 205 | 215 | 225 | 238 | 252 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,510.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 222 · 260 · 306 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,017 | 1,200 | 1,055 | 1,002 | 952 | 904 | 859 | 816 |
| growth % | — | 18.0 | (12.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 432 | 506 | 364 | 346 | 328 | 312 | 296 | 282 |
| margin % | 42.4 | 42.2 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| less depreciation | (54) | (54) | (74) | (71) | (68) | (64) | (61) | (58) |
| EBIT | 378 | 452 | 290 | 275 | 261 | 248 | 235 | 224 |
| less tax on EBIT | (72) | (69) | (65) | (62) | (59) | (56) | ||
| NOPAT | 217 | 206 | 196 | 186 | 177 | 168 | ||
| add depreciation | 54 | 54 | 74 | 71 | 68 | 64 | 61 | 58 |
| less capex | (86) | (111) | (95) | (90) | (85) | (79) | (74) | (70) |
| less working-capital build | — | 34 | 33 | 31 | 29 | 28 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 180 | 133 | — | 221 | 211 | 202 | 193 | 184 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 210 | 181 | 155 | 134 | 115 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 42.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 290 | 275 | 261 | 248 | 235 | 224 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 275 | 261 | 248 | 235 | 224 | |
| Profit after tax | 261 | 206 | 196 | 186 | 177 | 168 |
| Dividends | (112) | (88) | (84) | (80) | (76) | (72) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | 145 | 272 | 394 | 511 | 623 |
| Working capital | 685 | 650 | 618 | 587 | 558 | 530 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,538 | 1,557 | 1,574 | 1,589 | 1,602 | 1,614 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,015 | 2,133 | 2,244 | 2,351 | 2,451 | 2,547 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 311 | 296 | 281 | 267 | 254 | |
| Investing (capex) | (90) | (85) | (79) | (74) | (70) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (88) | (84) | (80) | (76) | (72) | |
| Net change in cash | 133 | 127 | 122 | 117 | 112 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 221 | 211 | 202 | 193 | 184 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 34.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹260 | (82.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.