Models
CONFIDENCE PETRO IND LTD.CONFIPETGas
₹40per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹40implied FY26 P/E 8.5× · EV/EBITDA 5.1×
Against CMP ₹89.22−55.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹29₹60
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹28₹91
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 594 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,169 |
| Enterprise value | 1,762 |
| less net debt | (448) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,314 |
| ÷ 33.22 crore shares | ₹40 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 41 | 45 | 49 | 54 | 60 |
| 10.50% | 37 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 53 |
| 11.00% | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 | 47 |
| 11.50% | 31 | 34 | 36 | 39 | 42 |
| 12.00% | 29 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 38 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹89.22; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (4) · 38 · 77 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.96 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.19 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,209 | 2,698 | 3,146 | 4,705 | 6,116 | 7,951 | 10,336 | 13,437 | 17,468 |
| growth % | 54.7 | 22.2 | 16.6 | 49.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 223 | 359 | 324 | 347 | 453 | 588 | 765 | 994 | 1,293 |
| margin % | 10.1 | 13.3 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| less depreciation | (85) | (160) | (175) | (171) | (220) | (286) | (372) | (484) | (629) |
| EBIT | 138 | 199 | 150 | 176 | 232 | 302 | 393 | 511 | 664 |
| less tax on EBIT | (40) | (53) | (69) | (90) | (116) | (151) | |||
| NOPAT | 136 | 179 | 233 | 303 | 394 | 512 | |||
| add depreciation | 85 | 160 | 175 | 171 | 220 | 286 | 372 | 484 | 629 |
| less capex | (212) | (245) | (272) | (114) | (147) | (229) | (347) | (516) | (755) |
| less working-capital build | — | (96) | (125) | (162) | (211) | (274) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (344) | 18 | (262) | — | 157 | 166 | 166 | 151 | 113 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 149 | 142 | 128 | 105 | 70 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 502, dividends at 3.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 176 | 232 | 302 | 393 | 511 | 664 |
| Interest at 16.2% on debt | (81) | (81) | (81) | (81) | (81) | |
| Profit before tax | 151 | 221 | 311 | 429 | 582 | |
| Profit after tax | 93 | 117 | 170 | 240 | 331 | 450 |
| Dividends | (4) | (4) | (6) | (9) | (13) | (17) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 55 | 144 | 241 | 335 | 410 | 443 |
| Working capital | 322 | 418 | 543 | 705 | 916 | 1,190 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,359 | 2,286 | 2,229 | 2,204 | 2,236 | 2,362 |
| Debt | 502 | 502 | 502 | 502 | 502 | 502 |
| Equity | 1,541 | 1,653 | 1,817 | 2,049 | 2,367 | 2,800 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 241 | 332 | 450 | 604 | 804 | |
| Investing (capex) | (147) | (229) | (347) | (516) | (755) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (6) | (9) | (13) | (17) | |
| Net change in cash | 90 | 96 | 94 | 76 | 33 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 94 | 103 | 103 | 88 | 50 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 7.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹40 | (55.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.