Models
CONTAINER CORP OF IND LTDCONCORTransport Services
₹177per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹177implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 6.6×
Against CMP ₹499.25−64.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies30.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹138₹254
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹421₹570
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,830 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,994 |
| Enterprise value | 12,825 |
| less net debt | 630 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 13,455 |
| ÷ 76.16 crore shares | ₹177 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 182 | 195 | 211 | 230 | 254 |
| 10.50% | 169 | 179 | 192 | 208 | 227 |
| 11.00% | 157 | 166 | 177 | 189 | 204 |
| 11.50% | 147 | 154 | 163 | 174 | 186 |
| 12.00% | 138 | 144 | 152 | 161 | 171 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹499.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 142 · 175 · 215 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,169 | 8,653 | 8,887 | 9,079 | 9,261 | 9,446 | 9,635 | 9,827 | 10,024 |
| growth % | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,866 | 1,958 | 1,896 | 1,950 | 1,991 | 2,031 | 2,071 | 2,113 | 2,155 |
| margin % | 22.8 | 22.6 | 21.3 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| less depreciation | (573) | (619) | (581) | (616) | (630) | (642) | (655) | (668) | (682) |
| EBIT | 1,293 | 1,339 | 1,315 | 1,334 | 1,361 | 1,389 | 1,416 | 1,445 | 1,474 |
| less tax on EBIT | (334) | (340) | (347) | (354) | (361) | (368) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,001 | 1,021 | 1,041 | 1,062 | 1,083 | 1,105 | |||
| add depreciation | 573 | 619 | 581 | 616 | 630 | 642 | 655 | 668 | 682 |
| less capex | (573) | (741) | (908) | (1,083) | (1,102) | (1,036) | (966) | (894) | (818) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 833 | 648 | 803 | — | 543 | 642 | 745 | 852 | 962 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 515 | 549 | 574 | 591 | 602 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 24, dividends at 56.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,334 | 1,361 | 1,389 | 1,416 | 1,445 | 1,474 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,359 | 1,387 | 1,414 | 1,443 | 1,472 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,242 | 1,020 | 1,040 | 1,061 | 1,082 | 1,104 |
| Dividends | (697) | (573) | (584) | (596) | (608) | (620) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 654 | 623 | 679 | 826 | 1,068 | 1,408 |
| Working capital | 303 | 309 | 316 | 322 | 328 | 335 |
| Net block and other assets | 14,218 | 14,690 | 15,084 | 15,395 | 15,620 | 15,757 |
| Debt | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Equity | 13,052 | 13,499 | 13,954 | 14,419 | 14,893 | 15,376 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,643 | 1,676 | 1,710 | 1,744 | 1,779 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,102) | (1,036) | (966) | (894) | (818) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (573) | (584) | (596) | (608) | (620) | |
| Net change in cash | (32) | 56 | 147 | 242 | 341 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 541 | 640 | 743 | 850 | 961 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 21.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹177 | (64.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.