₹470per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹470implied FY26 P/E 14.4× · EV/EBITDA 11.0×
Against CMP ₹2,228.00−78.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹348₹714
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,337₹2,270
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 485 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,531 |
| Enterprise value | 3,016 |
| less net debt | (141) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,875 |
| ÷ 6.12 crore shares | ₹470 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 487 | 529 | 578 | 639 | 714 |
| 10.50% | 444 | 479 | 519 | 568 | 627 |
| 11.00% | 408 | 436 | 470 | 510 | 558 |
| 11.50% | 376 | 400 | 429 | 462 | 501 |
| 12.00% | 348 | 369 | 393 | 421 | 454 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,228.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 376 · 467 · 579 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,403 | 1,515 | 1,637 | 1,768 | 1,909 | 2,062 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 275 | 297 | 321 | 346 | 374 | 404 |
| margin % | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
| less depreciation | (38) | (41) | (44) | (48) | (52) | (56) |
| EBIT | 237 | 256 | 277 | 299 | 323 | 348 |
| less tax on EBIT | (54) | (59) | (64) | (69) | (74) | (80) |
| NOPAT | 182 | 197 | 213 | 230 | 248 | 268 |
| add depreciation | 38 | 41 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 |
| less capex | (174) | (188) | (165) | (138) | (106) | (67) |
| less working-capital build | — | (10) | (11) | (12) | (12) | (13) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 40 | 81 | 128 | 182 | 244 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 38 | 69 | 99 | 126 | 152 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 143, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 237 | 256 | 277 | 299 | 323 | 348 |
| Interest at 4.9% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 249 | 270 | 292 | 316 | 341 | |
| Profit after tax | 185 | 192 | 208 | 225 | 243 | 263 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 37 | 112 | 235 | 412 | 650 |
| Working capital | 123 | 133 | 144 | 155 | 168 | 181 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,080 | 1,227 | 1,348 | 1,439 | 1,493 | 1,504 |
| Debt | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 |
| Equity | 747 | 939 | 1,146 | 1,371 | 1,614 | 1,877 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 223 | 241 | 261 | 282 | 305 | |
| Investing (capex) | (188) | (165) | (138) | (106) | (67) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 35 | 76 | 123 | 177 | 238 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 35 | 76 | 123 | 177 | 238 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 19.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹470 | (78.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.