Models
COSMO FIRST LIMITEDCOSMOFIRSTIndustrial Products
₹853per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹853implied FY26 P/E 13.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹874.00−2.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies26.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3199%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹439₹1,684
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹561₹996
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 56 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,717 |
| Enterprise value | 3,773 |
| less net debt | (1,534) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,239 |
| ÷ 2.63 crore shares | ₹853 |
99% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 908 | 1,049 | 1,219 | 1,426 | 1,684 |
| 10.50% | 763 | 880 | 1,019 | 1,185 | 1,388 |
| 11.00% | 639 | 738 | 853 | 989 | 1,152 |
| 11.50% | 532 | 616 | 713 | 826 | 960 |
| 12.00% | 439 | 511 | 594 | 689 | 800 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹874.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 341 · 817 · 1,440 |
| Draws below the CMP | 55% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.41 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,065 | 2,587 | 2,895 | 3,639 | 4,567 | 5,731 | 7,192 | 9,027 | 11,328 |
| growth % | 0.9 | (15.6) | 11.9 | 25.7 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 |
| EBITDA | 382 | 183 | 288 | 376 | 470 | 590 | 741 | 930 | 1,167 |
| margin % | 12.5 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (75) | (89) | (100) | (137) | (174) | (218) | (273) | (343) | (430) |
| EBIT | 307 | 94 | 188 | 239 | 297 | 373 | 468 | 587 | 736 |
| less tax on EBIT | (53) | (66) | (83) | (104) | (130) | (163) | |||
| NOPAT | 186 | 231 | 290 | 364 | 456 | 573 | |||
| add depreciation | 75 | 89 | 100 | 137 | 174 | 218 | 273 | 343 | 430 |
| less capex | (380) | (298) | (502) | (412) | (516) | (551) | (570) | (564) | (517) |
| less working-capital build | — | (52) | (65) | (82) | (103) | (129) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 85 | (52) | (336) | — | (164) | (109) | (15) | 133 | 358 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (155) | (93) | (12) | 92 | 224 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,586, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 239 | 297 | 373 | 468 | 587 | 736 |
| Interest at 9.6% on debt | (152) | (152) | (152) | (152) | (152) | |
| Profit before tax | 145 | 220 | 315 | 434 | 584 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 112 | 171 | 245 | 338 | 454 |
| Dividends | (10) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 52 | (230) | (457) | (591) | (576) | (337) |
| Working capital | 202 | 254 | 320 | 401 | 504 | 633 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,441 | 4,783 | 5,117 | 5,414 | 5,634 | 5,720 |
| Debt | 1,586 | 1,586 | 1,586 | 1,586 | 1,586 | 1,586 |
| Equity | 1,617 | 1,729 | 1,900 | 2,146 | 2,484 | 2,938 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 234 | 324 | 437 | 578 | 756 | |
| Investing (capex) | (516) | (551) | (570) | (564) | (517) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (282) | (227) | (134) | 15 | 239 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (282) | (227) | (134) | 15 | 239 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25.5% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹853 | (2.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.