Models
CREDO BRANDS MARKETING LMUFTIRetailing
₹169per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹169implied FY25 P/E 16.0× · EV/EBITDA 5.9×
Against CMP ₹72.57+132.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3065%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹137₹232
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹63₹123
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 371 |
| PV of terminal value | 689 |
| Enterprise value | 1,060 |
| less net debt | 44 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,104 |
| ÷ 6.54 crore shares | ₹169 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 174 | 184 | 197 | 212 | 232 |
| 10.50% | 163 | 171 | 182 | 194 | 209 |
| 11.00% | 153 | 160 | 169 | 179 | 191 |
| 11.50% | 145 | 151 | 158 | 167 | 176 |
| 12.00% | 137 | 143 | 149 | 156 | 164 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹72.57; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 122 · 168 · 216 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 567 | 618 | 674 | 734 | 801 | 873 | 951 |
| growth % | — | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 161 | 180 | 196 | 214 | 233 | 254 | 277 |
| margin % | 28.3 | 29.1 | 29.1 | 29.1 | 29.1 | 29.1 | 29.1 |
| less depreciation | (62) | (69) | (75) | (82) | (89) | (97) | (106) |
| EBIT | 98 | 111 | 121 | 132 | 144 | 157 | 171 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (31) | (34) | (37) | (40) | (44) | |
| NOPAT | 83 | 90 | 98 | 107 | 117 | 128 | |
| add depreciation | 62 | 69 | 75 | 82 | 89 | 97 | 106 |
| less capex | (36) | (21) | (23) | (43) | (67) | (95) | (127) |
| less working-capital build | — | (28) | (31) | (34) | (37) | (40) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 20 | — | 114 | 106 | 96 | 83 | 66 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 108 | 91 | 74 | 57 | 42 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 111 | 121 | 132 | 144 | 157 | 171 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 121 | 132 | 144 | 157 | 171 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 90 | 98 | 107 | 117 | 127 |
| Dividends | (3) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 45 | 159 | 265 | 360 | 443 | 509 |
| Working capital | 315 | 344 | 375 | 408 | 445 | 485 |
| Net block and other assets | 409 | 357 | 318 | 296 | 294 | 315 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 410 | 500 | 599 | 706 | 823 | 951 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 137 | 149 | 162 | 177 | 193 | |
| Investing (capex) | (23) | (43) | (67) | (95) | (127) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 114 | 106 | 95 | 82 | 66 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 114 | 106 | 95 | 82 | 66 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 29.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹169 | 132.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.