Models
CRIZAC LIMITEDCRIZACRetailing
₹230per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹230implied FY26 P/E 18.3× · EV/EBITDA 13.6×
Against CMP ₹187.50+22.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹180₹329
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹160₹369
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 969 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,921 |
| Enterprise value | 3,890 |
| less net debt | 135 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,025 |
| ÷ 17.50 crore shares | ₹230 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 237 | 254 | 274 | 298 | 329 |
| 10.50% | 220 | 234 | 250 | 269 | 293 |
| 11.00% | 205 | 216 | 230 | 246 | 265 |
| 11.50% | 192 | 202 | 213 | 226 | 242 |
| 12.00% | 180 | 189 | 199 | 210 | 223 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹187.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 192 · 229 · 274 |
| Draws below the CMP | 7% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,042 | 1,126 | 1,216 | 1,313 | 1,418 | 1,531 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 286 | 308 | 333 | 360 | 388 | 420 |
| margin % | 27.4 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 27.4 |
| less depreciation | (27) | (29) | (32) | (34) | (37) | (40) |
| EBIT | 258 | 279 | 301 | 326 | 352 | 380 |
| less tax on EBIT | (61) | (66) | (71) | (77) | (83) | (90) |
| NOPAT | 197 | 213 | 230 | 248 | 268 | 290 |
| add depreciation | 27 | 29 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 40 |
| less capex | (17) | (18) | (24) | (31) | (39) | (48) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 224 | 237 | 251 | 266 | 281 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 212 | 203 | 193 | 184 | 176 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 63.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 258 | 279 | 301 | 326 | 352 | 380 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 279 | 301 | 326 | 352 | 380 | |
| Profit after tax | 219 | 213 | 230 | 248 | 268 | 290 |
| Dividends | (140) | (136) | (147) | (159) | (171) | (185) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 136 | 223 | 313 | 406 | 500 | 596 |
| Working capital | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Net block and other assets | 735 | 724 | 716 | 713 | 715 | 723 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 592 | 669 | 752 | 842 | 939 | 1,043 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 242 | 261 | 282 | 305 | 329 | |
| Investing (capex) | (18) | (24) | (31) | (39) | (48) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (136) | (147) | (159) | (171) | (185) | |
| Net change in cash | 88 | 90 | 92 | 94 | 96 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 224 | 237 | 251 | 266 | 281 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 27.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹230 | 22.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.