Models
CROWN LIFTERS LIMITEDCROWNIndustrial Manufacturing
₹89per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹89implied FY26 P/E 11.3× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹112.40−21.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies16.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31106%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹46₹174
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹100₹191
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (9) |
| PV of terminal value | 169 |
| Enterprise value | 160 |
| less net debt | (57) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 103 |
| ÷ 1.16 crore shares | ₹89 |
106% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 94 | 109 | 126 | 147 | 174 |
| 10.50% | 79 | 91 | 106 | 123 | 144 |
| 11.00% | 67 | 77 | 89 | 103 | 119 |
| 11.50% | 56 | 64 | 74 | 86 | 100 |
| 12.00% | 46 | 54 | 62 | 72 | 83 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹112.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 46 · 87 · 137 |
| Draws below the CMP | 74% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19 | 28 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 51 | 58 | 66 | 75 |
| growth % | (3.2) | 45.8 | 24.7 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | 5 | 15 | 33 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 35 | 39 |
| margin % | 28.4 | 53.8 | 93.8 | 52.7 | 52.7 | 52.7 | 52.7 | 52.7 | 52.7 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (7) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (12) | (14) |
| EBIT | 3 | 8 | 27 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 26 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| less capex | (13) | (59) | (51) | (30) | (34) | (32) | (28) | (23) | (17) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (2) | (4) | (3) | — | (14) | (9) | (3) | 6 | 16 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (13) | (8) | (2) | 4 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 57, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 14 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 26 |
| Interest at 8.5% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 11 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 21 | |
| Profit after tax | 9 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (17) | (30) | (36) | (34) | (22) |
| Working capital | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) |
| Net block and other assets | 262 | 288 | 310 | 327 | 338 | 341 |
| Debt | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
| Equity | 77 | 85 | 95 | 106 | 119 | 134 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 16 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 29 | |
| Investing (capex) | (34) | (32) | (28) | (23) | (17) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (18) | (13) | (6) | 2 | 13 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (18) | (13) | (6) | 2 | 13 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 52.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹89 | (21.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.