Models
CUMMINS INDIA LTDCUMMINSINDIndustrial Products
₹1,431per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,431implied FY26 P/E 16.8× · EV/EBITDA 15.6×
Against CMP ₹5,070.00−71.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,101₹2,088
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,833₹6,100
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 8,315 |
| PV of terminal value | 30,841 |
| Enterprise value | 39,156 |
| less net debt | 500 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 39,656 |
| ÷ 27.72 crore shares | ₹1,431 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,478 | 1,589 | 1,722 | 1,885 | 2,088 |
| 10.50% | 1,362 | 1,454 | 1,563 | 1,694 | 1,853 |
| 11.00% | 1,263 | 1,340 | 1,431 | 1,538 | 1,666 |
| 11.50% | 1,177 | 1,243 | 1,319 | 1,408 | 1,513 |
| 12.00% | 1,101 | 1,158 | 1,223 | 1,298 | 1,385 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,070.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,152 · 1,419 · 1,760 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.50 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,772 | 9,000 | 10,391 | 12,143 | 14,208 | 16,623 | 19,449 | 22,755 | 26,623 |
| growth % | 25.9 | 15.8 | 15.4 | 16.9 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,233 | 1,768 | 2,080 | 2,513 | 2,941 | 3,441 | 4,026 | 4,710 | 5,511 |
| margin % | 15.9 | 19.6 | 20.0 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 |
| less depreciation | (142) | (159) | (185) | (199) | (227) | (266) | (311) | (364) | (426) |
| EBIT | 1,091 | 1,609 | 1,895 | 2,315 | 2,714 | 3,175 | 3,715 | 4,346 | 5,085 |
| less tax on EBIT | (595) | (697) | (816) | (955) | (1,117) | (1,307) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,720 | 2,016 | 2,359 | 2,760 | 3,229 | 3,778 | |||
| add depreciation | 142 | 159 | 185 | 199 | 227 | 266 | 311 | 364 | 426 |
| less capex | (162) | (286) | (238) | (252) | (298) | (342) | (391) | (447) | (511) |
| less working-capital build | — | (386) | (452) | (528) | (618) | (723) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 658 | 999 | 1,447 | — | 1,559 | 1,832 | 2,152 | 2,528 | 2,970 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,480 | 1,566 | 1,658 | 1,754 | 1,857 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 62.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,315 | 2,714 | 3,175 | 3,715 | 4,346 | 5,085 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 2,714 | 3,175 | 3,715 | 4,346 | 5,085 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,362 | 2,016 | 2,359 | 2,760 | 3,229 | 3,778 |
| Dividends | (1,483) | (1,266) | (1,481) | (1,733) | (2,028) | (2,373) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 500 | 793 | 1,143 | 1,562 | 2,062 | 2,659 |
| Working capital | 2,272 | 2,658 | 3,110 | 3,638 | 4,257 | 4,980 |
| Net block and other assets | 8,532 | 8,603 | 8,679 | 8,758 | 8,841 | 8,927 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 8,475 | 9,225 | 10,103 | 11,129 | 12,331 | 13,736 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,858 | 2,173 | 2,543 | 2,975 | 3,481 | |
| Investing (capex) | (298) | (342) | (391) | (447) | (511) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,266) | (1,481) | (1,733) | (2,028) | (2,373) | |
| Net change in cash | 293 | 350 | 419 | 500 | 597 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,559 | 1,832 | 2,152 | 2,528 | 2,970 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17% | 20.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,431 | (71.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.